The 10th of G20 leaders’ summit was ended in Antalya, Turkey. The G20 leaders issued the “G20 Leaders’ Communiqué “. Mr. Douglas A. Rediker, a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International shared his view on the Summit outcomes and the role of China with People’s Daily. Mr. Rediker expressed his confidence in global economic growth for 2016, though there is risks and uncertainties. He also spoke highly of China’s role in world economic growth and economic governance.
Mr. Rediker commented that G20 is more and more important in coordinating the policies of world economy. “There is a clearly ever-expanding agenda for G20, with leaders as well as ministers at financial level are able to have very comprehensive conversation of policies across multi-levels”, Mr. Rediker said.
As one of the most important economic coordination platforms, the issues of G20 are not only limited to economic ones, but also include climate change, and a number of boarder challenges. The leaders may not agree on everything, but they create a commitment to economic growth. Mr. Rediker said, “After reading the leaders’ communique, people can see the leaders still stick to the goal they made previously. They try to show their determination by implementing the consensus.”
But it is not an easy job to struggle for a booming world economy for 2016. Mr. Rediker said, the world economy faces a wide range of challenges in the coming year. Emerging economies with fast growth in the past decades now are either in recession or in slower growing.
Developed economies also face challenges and the task of structural reform. European Union still has a lot of work to do to deal with Euro debt crisis. EU institutions and its relationship with its member countries, and imbalance in Europe still need more attention from EU. Unites States also face a lot of uncertainties and political issues in election years of 2016. Terrorist attack in Paris adds new shadow to world economy. Mr. Rediker warned political risks and uncertainty can be a “self-fulfilling prophecy”.
But Mr. Rediker is still confident about the economic performance of 2016. He said to achieve the growth target is certainly possible next year, though the world economy faces challenges. One important goal of G20 summit in Australia last year was to achieve additional 2 percent of growth by 2018. Mr. Rediker said it is also possible, but we are not sure right now what will exactly happen. The good thing is that one third of the goals G20 settled in 2014 have been made.
Mr. Rediker is impressed by Chinese companies, particularly the new Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Tencent. He said, these internet technology companies become extremely strong sectors and now are moving to be global players. They can be a prominent economic driver for Chinese economy.
Mr. Rediker is optimistic about China’s economy. He said, China’s economic model is transforming from investment of infrastructure and export to service and consumption. Though there are risks from growth transformation, China’s economy may still enjoy a relatively high growth of around 7 percent, or from 6.5 to 7 percent. It is a good thing to world economy. But it does not necessarily means that the whole world will benefit from China’s growth.
He also contends that there is no doubt that “One Belt, One Road” initiative and the coming AIIB is a positive factor for the related nations in the long term. But people cannot expect too much from that in a single year.
Mr. Rediker represented the United States on the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before 2012. He said, the inclusion of Yuan to SDR is on the way, hopefully the Board can finish it at the end of the year.
G20 is more and more important in coordinating the policies of world economy. But G20 is not an institution with governance authority and implementation. China will host G20 summit in 2016. Mr. Rediker hopes more progress can be made next year with China’s effort and its commitment to world economic growth. (The Daily Mail – People’s Daily news exchange item)
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