Ration cards for the short term!

FEDERAL Minister for Information Sherry Rehman at a book launching ceremony last Sunday highlighted several alarming trends prevailing in the economy today: 74 percent of Pakistanis living at 2 dollars or less a day, high inflation in particular of food prices, and water and energy shortages. These dismal facts account for several recent suicides that were reported in the press and that captured public attention though not yet of the national and provincial assemblies whose members are focused on laying the facts as they see it before the people of this country as a first step towards dealing with the situation. That public patience may be wearing thin has been reflected by riots against load shedding in many cities, including Multan, the city where Prime Minister Gilani hails from. Riots against rising food prices have not yet been witnessed in Pakistan, though they have been seen in other countries like Egypt. In addition, the rising international price of oil is raising transport costs as well as production costs all over the world including Pakistan. However, if the disturbing trend of prices in general and of food items in particular continues there is every likelihood that a desperate citizenry may well take to the streets. And, therefore, there is an urgent need to take remedial measures to pre-empt and forestall such disturbances. Everyone is agreed on what the long-term solution to the problems facing our economy today should be. The Government needs to urgently raise revenue and, at the same time, wasteful expenditure must be curtailed and priorities clearly defined so as to ensure that the performance of the social sectors, with the biggest impact on the lower middle and poor groups, improves.
There is also a need to support all productive sectors in an effort to increase employment levels as well as bring inflation down. Exports also require improvement in order to generate foreign exchange reserves that would arrest the rupee slide visible in recent weeks. However, each of these measures requires time and sustained effort - elements that are obviously not available in the short term. The government needs to take short-term measures too, to stem the tide of desolation that grips many a poor family trying to meet just the daily food bill. Unfortunately, for the short term, there are a limited number of proposed measures that are, generally, not supported by economists who invariably oppose subsidies or rationing as such policies play havoc with the demand and supply graphs of commodities. Not many options being available for the short term for the government of Pakistan at this point in time, some imaginatively conceived measures can still be tried. The international media is full of dire predictions about fuel rationing as a consequence of the strike action in Grangemouth, Scotland. Again in Britain rice is being rationed by shopkeepers in Asian neighbourhoods to prevent hoarding. Tilda, the biggest importer of basmati rice, said that its buyers - who sell to the curry and Chinese restaurant trade as well as to families - were restricting customers to two bags per person. This is not to provide an economic justification for rationing for there is none but to state that when there are supply shortages of an essential commodity then there is little choice but to follow a regimen of rationing. Thus rationing is an option that needs to be further explored by the new government.



Self perpetuating disaster

ONE of the principal reasons for the initial post-occupation strengthening of the Iraqi and Afghan insurgencies was the occupiers’ inability to provide relief for the masses with timely reconstruction successes. Most common Afghans loathed the Taleban’s harsh rule, but were badly let down by the Karzai administration for not making their lives any better. In fact, it eventually turned out worse for the majority of the population. The daily death and destruction is compounded by utter lawlessness beyond the capital, an element of statecraft that the Taleban, it turns out, were much better acquainted with. Little surprise then that there is little respect for President Karzai’s government, it being unable to deliver anything substantial for the people and perhaps rightly dubbed America’s puppet. Iraq’s drama has been similar since the ouster of Saddam’s Baathists, only more ruthless. The mad orgy of mutilation and mass murder has made most people look back at the former dictator’s days with an element of nostalgia, when most had running water and electricity, and suicide bombs and sectarian militia battles were not more common than common people going about their lives, attending schools and offices, without the sword hanging over their heads.
Iraq too has been hampered by a glaring failure of reconstruction initiatives. The Maliki administration hardly extends beyond the Green Zone, not even operating properly in the capital Baghdad. At such times, there is no question of reconstruction projects registering even the minutest successes. Yet without them people will see nothing concrete done for them, and will not rise in favour of the centre. It turns out that millions upon millions of dollars have been squandered in incomplete and abandoned reconstruction projects in Iraq. The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction cut a sorry but understandable figure as he explained how delays, inadequate labour, insufficient capital and above all violence and constant threat of attack have all but ruled out project completion. The country has been reduced to a state where even the most powerful cannot roam about without considerable guard, and the media’s coverage has been restricted to strongly fortified positions. It is not clear how any form of reconstruction can commence till violence levels are reduced, and since the violence will not be reduced till rebuilding promises are honoured, Iraq’s is now a self-perpetuating disaster, with no end in sight. To their discredit, Washington made not visible alterations in its strategy once the immediate aftermath of the occupation revealed glaring loopholes in contingency preparation for any form of insurgency. Concerned quarters cried hoarse about giving reconstruction top priority, but the White House and Pentagon had other immediate interests. Even now, both tend to shroud responses in fancy rhetoric rather than accept the magnitude of the disaster, and draw fresh plans with clear cut priorities. Iraqis must see a change in their living standards or the bombs and bullets will never cease.

—Khaleej Times