Healing the forests
Lan Xinzhen

NO ONE could have predicted the seldom-seen blizzards that, starting from mid-January, swept through southern China. Temperatures there in January usually averaged above zero, and only occasionally dip below. Yet, in defiance of the usual cases, snowstorms roared through this part of the country, destroying simply constructed factory buildings, knocking out power lines, and bringing down branches from numerous trees. Endowed with rich forest resources, the forestry industry in the south is one of the country’s most vibrant. This is also a reason why the storm became such a catastrophe—nearly 18.6 million hectares of forests, or around 10 percent of the national total, were damaged.
According to Xiao Xingwei, head of the Department of Forest Resources under the State Forestry Administration, it will take a decade or more to restore the damaged forests to their prior state. Rough estimates from the State Forestry Administration put direct economic losses from the blizzard at 57.3 billion yuan ($8.1 billion). “The nightmare for China’s forests has not come to an end,” said Xiao. “In response, forestry departments across the country have waged a rescuing drive to rehabilitate the forests and minimize losses.”
Future impact
Zhu Lieke, Deputy Director of the State Forest Administration, is deeply aware of the haplessness that victims of the blizzard in the coastal Fujian Province were presented with, when the storms swept through the region. “The raging blizzard brought havoc to cities and rural villages, leaving collapsed bamboo and trees everywhere.” Zhu personally talked to a foresting family who sat around a hot stove under a leaky roof. The host told Zhu, “I can still deal with the leaking roof. But the loss of the bamboo groves has cut off our lifeblood for the next two or three years.” Zhu confessed to being distressed by these words. In the disaster-stricken areas, the farmers derive over 50 percent of their income from forestry. As a result, their income in 2008 will be severely constrained, and they will have to bear the brunt through the next three to five years.
Zhu and his colleagues pledged new initiatives to aid the farmers, including distributing interest subsidies for credit to help them recover their forestry production. According to Zhu, the blizzard has posed not only a headache for the livelihood of the people, but also a thorny problem for the ecology of disaster-stricken areas. By the end of 2007, China had reported a forest coverage rate of over 18 percent. But this figure may be shrinking because of the snowstorms, which damaged many areas reforested between 2004 and 2006. Among these were many important ecological areas, such as forests and natural reserves turned from farmland. The widespread devastation from the storms not only hurts China’s ecology, but also makes it more difficult for the country to reach its goal of a 20-percent forest coverage rate by 2010.
Large areas of economically important forests were frozen to death, straining supplies for forestry products such as wood, bamboo, pine oleoresin and oleum camelliae—especially the already tight wood supplies. “The suspension of production of some forestry enterprises will obviously affect the employment of millions and constrain supplies of forestry products over the next few years,” noted Zhu. Xiao said that 370 million cubic meters of forest reserves, or 3 percent of the national total, had been damaged and that nearly 3 billion bamboo trees, or 47 percent of the national total, were destroyed.
It may take three to 12 months for some crops to recuperate, but for forests, which have long growth cycles, as much as three to five years could be needed. Damages to forestry resources and prospected decline in incomes from agriculture and forestry will reduce the fiscal revenue of affected townships and counties, further hampering their overall development. Secondary disaster fears Zhu cited the prevention of secondary disasters as a focus of the current rescue campaign, because the blizzard has left behind many hidden dangers.
Invisible troubles could first come from snow-melting agents made from corrosive industrial salt. These agents were heavily used on highways and expressways as part of the effort to clear away the snow and ensure flows of traffic and power supplies. If inappropriately disposed of, the industrial salts will be washed away with the melted snow, possibly triggering the salinization of the soil and the contamination of underground water resources. Worse still, the salts may kill trees along the roadsides and put people’s health in danger. On February 20, the State Forestry Administration appealed for timely disposal of the snow-melting agents with a view to guarding against secondary disasters and possible impact to the environment.
During the disaster relief work, snow was piled up under trees or along roads. Recently, the State Forestry Administration has ordered the removal of snow piles that have yet to melt. Trees exposed to pollutants in the melting snow should be heavily watered to dilute the salt content of the soil around their roots, so that the trees can healthily grow. Another secondary disaster fear is the possibility of fires. Zhu said that since the blizzards brought down many trees and dispersed litters everywhere, the way had been paved for forest fires.Experience has taught us that snowstorms are usually followed by droughts. The risk of forest fires may escalate due to dry weather, the accumulation of combustible materials and frequent activities of people in forest areas. By February 19, Jiangxi Province had already recorded 17 forest fire outbreaks since the break of the snowstorm. Replanting efforts March 12, China’s Arbor Day, heralds the inception of the spring reforestation campaign. This could be a major remedy for the forestry recovery efforts in southern China.
On February 1, the State Forestry Administration distributed its afforestation program for 2008 to forestry departments across the country, with the goal of reforesting 5.2 million hectares of land and planting 2.04 billion trees by individuals. “Our forestry infrastructure has been torpedoed, adding difficulties to the complementary planting and rehabilitation work,” added Zhu. On February 25, the State Forestry Administration pressed for more active measures to cushion the blow dealt by the snowstorms and accelerate the pace of forest recovery. At present, efforts have been made to restore plant nurseries injured by the weather and resume the production of nursery stock. While committed to spring reforestation, disaster-hit areas have already geared themselves up for more planting in the summer and fall.
“The snowstorm is not devoid of merit,” said Cao Qingyao, a spokesman for the State Forestry Administration. “At least it inspires those disaster-hit areas to explore scientific and rational construction models and management methods of forestry. Innovative frameworks and programs for the reforestation work are also compelled to address past problems. “More favorable policies will be implemented to mobilize the forestry farmers to plant, cultivate and protect the forests, and this is expected to breathe life into the reforestation campaign,” said Cao. “Despite much difficulty, we remain faithful to meeting the target of a forest coverage rate of 20 percent by 2010,” added Zhu. “Production and investment programs will be adjusted in tune with the post-disaster situation.”

(The Daily Mail-Beijing Review  Articles Exchange Item)

Asia not immune to West’s financial malady
Bill Emmott

IT IS so nice when a consensus forms among the economic commentators. There is going to be a recession in America, the pack says, and probably in Britain too, for we have both sinned with our debt, our deficits and our soaring house prices. But the world as a whole won’t suffer, as the great emerging economies of Asia — China and India — will carry on booming regardless. News that China’s gross domestic product expanded by an extraordinary 11.4 per cent last year — its fastest rate for 13 years — only strengthens this view.
When a consensus is so clear, it is always time to wonder whether it might be wrong. That contrarian instinct was reinforced this week by the way that Asian stockmarkets, including those in Mumbai, Shanghai and Hong Kong, reacted to markets in America and Europe by going through wild gyrations of their own. A widely followed measure of such shares, the MCSI Emerging Asia index, was down 25 per cent at one point this week from its October high. Why should that be, if Asia’s boom is unaffected? The answer is, in part, that stock market traders are wild, emotional creatures, and we risk going mad if we try to understand their every move. But another part of the answer is that the sanguine consensus is likely to be only half right. The half that is wrong offers some good reasons for concern about Asia.
The half of the consensus view that looks right is the half that says that China, India and the surrounding countries are not dependent on exports to America any more, and neither are they dependent on foreign capital. Exports to America account for about eight per cent of China’s GDP and only two per cent of India’s, so while a big drop in those exports would have some effect, it is not going to be crippling. Moreover, a drop is already happening: exports to the United States from China have been declining for several months now, but overall growth keeps barrelling on. The reason is that capital is abundant, and it is being spent on new buildings, roads, stadiums, bridge economic crises of old, the developing countries got hit twice over: by the loss of their export markets in the west, and by the withdrawal of their capital by panicky international bankers and investors. In the past decade the tables have been turned: China, other Asian economies (though not India) and the Arab oil producers have been the providers of capital to the west, not the receivers of it.
One of the most extraordinary statistics about the Chinese economy is that capital investment accounts for 45 per cent of GDP. The equivalent figures for America and western Europe are 15-20 per cent. That investment is being financed by China’s own savings. So sub-prime losses in America, bank frauds in France and panics in London are irrelevant to developers in Beijing or in Shanghai. As long as those developers keep on investing in new roads and buildings, the Chinese economy will keep on growing. Perhaps declining exports to America and Europe could reduce China’s growth rate from 11.4 to nine per cent, say. But that is still pretty good, and would still mean that China offers a strong market for its Asian neighbours.
That is the correct half of the consensus. It doesn’t really apply to rich Japan, for its domestic economy is weak, and the loss of exports to the United States will injure it more. Things are also a bit different in India, which does need to import capital, because — unlike China — it runs a deficit. But India too has an investment boom, and so far its companies have been finding it easier to raise capital since the credit dramas began last August, as investors desert the loss-making markets of the west. Where the consensus is likely to be wrong, however, is in its implicit assumption that these Asian economies are not going to be facing problems of their own — problems that do have some link to the difficulties facing America and Europe. And chief among these problems is inflation. Rising prices for food, energy and other commodities, partly caused by strong Asian demand, lie behind the high interest rates and inflation worries that were spooking the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and, until its big interest cut, the US Federal Reserve. They are also a big worry for India and, even more so, China. In recent years China has followed a policy of keeping its currency cheap against the dollar in order to help exports. To do that, its central bank has had to focus its monetary policy on the currency and not domestic inflation, building up vast foreign exchange reserves (now $1.4 trillion, the world’s largest) and allowing credit inside China to be ultra cheap. Hence all that investment in buildings, and by speculators in Chinese share markets.

—Khaleej Times




Is West trying to revive the Cold War?
Hassan Tahsin

VLADMIR Putin decided not to run for another term as president of Russia paving the way for his protégé Dmitry Medvedev to succeed him. This does not mean he is no more interested in the future of the Rossiyskaya Federatsiya (the Russian Federation) which rose, Phoenix-like, from the ashes of the Soviet Union. As two-term president, Putin transformed Russia beyond recognition. Now Russia is a confident, resurgent power. For the last eight years, GDP has steadily increased, rising by the highest percentage of 8.1 percent since the fall of the Soviet Union. Inflation has fallen to under 10 percent, and Russia’s trade balance has increased threefold in four years.
Russians would, undoubtedly, remember Putin as a strong leader who rescued them from the anarchy that surfaced in the wake of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and reasserted the Russian identity. The outside challenges Putin had to counter were no less serious. The United States, which wanted a total surrender by Russia, applied varying degrees of pressures to guarantee that Moscow would never be back on its feet after the terrible decade of disintegration, rampant corruption and steady decline. The most threatening and humiliating of the US moves against Russia is a new European missile scheme that would include installation of US radars to spy on Russia. Reminiscent of the old Soviet adventures, Putin sent Russian scientists to explore the polar region and put the Russian flag deep in the ocean in the disputed Arctic region. It was a calculated move to reassert Russian stakes over the enormous energy reserves in the normally inaccessible region. More than 100 Russian scientists and geologists had a mission to find evidence to reinforce the mountain ranges in the ocean bed was a geographical extension of Russian territory providing valid grounds for the Russian claim.
The Western protests at the Russian attempt to ignite a conflict on the North Pole region was quite understandable. According to US experts, the Arctic region sits on top of the 25 percent of the oil and gas reserves in the world besides reserves of diamonds, platinum, manganese, nickel, tin and lead. In an apparent move to show the Western powers that he did not fear them, Putin launched a scheme of advanced long-range ballistic missiles. They included missiles that could be launched from sea, land and from the air. Russia also decided to station permanent fleets in the Mediterranean and other major oceans around the globe. Putin is also not ready to accept unilateral US decisions in matters related to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Russia recently warned that NATO was playing with fire if it intended to go ahead with the plan to admit its neighbors Georgia and Ukraine to the US-dominated alliance. The neoconservatives at White House believe that Putin was trying to revive the Cold War and thus play its historical role on world stage.
It is also not a secret that there are fundamental differences of opinion between Moscow and Washington on most sensitive international issues such as the independence of Kosovo and Iran’s nuclear projects besides the defense shield project in the Eastern Europe. Russia also does not approve of the continued US presence in Iraq or the NATO presence in Afghanistan besides the American meddling in the Central Asian republics. Their suspicion is not misplaced as Putin made it clear that he was determined to return Russia to its old glory, particularly after NATO backed the plan to install a US radar system in the Czech Republic to track ballistic missiles. Though Putin has stepped down as president, it does not mean that he would not come back after four years. In February 2007, Putin warned the US that some of its practices went beyond limits of toleration. Three months later in June he threatened to position the Russian missiles toward new European targets if the US went ahead with the Defense Shield project. One thing is certain: Putin would not remain a mute spectator if the Western powers attempt to sideline Russians.

—Arab News