Photo opportunity

ANOTHER ‘roadmap’ for peace and fruitful negotiations devised by President Bush has turned out to be a damp squib. All his efforts for a foreign policy victory with regard to Russia in his final year in office seem to have borne results of no great consequence.The Bush-Putin meeting in the Black Sea resort of Sochi yesterday failed to break any fresh ground insofar as the relations between their countries are concerned. The parley between the two outgoing presidents generated a lot of interest as it followed the Nato summit in Bucharest that dwelt, among other things, on the controversial US missile defence ventures in central Europe. But the Sochi meeting had little to offer except for goodwill and camaraderie between the two leaders, who met for the last time in their capacity as heads of states. President Putin would be stepping down next month. The differences between the US and Russia over the missile system and other issues remained. Therefore, the ‘strategic vision’ agreement signed by the two sides could hardly be considered a significant development in enchancing the US-Russia ties.
Russia has made it clear that it is still opposed to the American missile defence programme in Europe even as Nato members have shown their support for it in the recently concluded Bucharest summit. And President Bush did concede that the US administration has to do more to persuade Moscow that Russian interests would be taken into account while going ahead with the missile defence system. Even during the Bucharest summit, President Putin told the gathering that his country is willing to cooperate with Nato only if the alliance takes care to respect Russia’s interests. Russia firmly believes that the missile defence plans — that include installing a missile interceptor in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic reportedly to counter any threat from Iran — would affect what it calls Europe’s ‘strategic balance’. Also, Russia refuses to believe that Iran could pose any real threat even as the Bush administration continues to regard it as clear and present danger. President Bush was expected to assure the Russian side during the Sochi meeting that the system would be pressed into action only if there is any ‘real’ threat from Iran, and that the system in no way would be targeting Russia. After the meeting, President Bush seemed to gloss over the differences with Russia over the issue by saying that they want to create a system for responding to potential missile threats in which “Russia and the United States and Europe will participate as equal partners”. On the other hand, Russia stressed on the need for greater transparency and confidence-building measures that should address Russian concerns. In the final analysis, along with the brilliant photo-ops, the meeting was all about empty rhetoric and little substance.



Time to go

WHETHER it’s the announcement of the presidential election results or the holding of the presidency itself, the Robert Mugabe story has dragged on for too long. At this uncertain postelection moment, Zimbabwe remains in limbo after Mugabe’s party lost the parliamentary vote in last weekend’s balloting; the final vote count has not yet been officially released. But Mugabe may not be ready to give up power any time soon. With every passing day, tensions rise and suspicion grows that Mugabe and his dwindling number of die-hard supports are plotting to thwart what at least his rival Morgan Tsvangirai calls an overwhelming victory. One attempt is to seek a runoff. In the meantime, these reported hush-hush meetings and telephone calls among chiefs and some of Mugabe’s closest aides are aimed at damage control or at trying to persuade Mugabe not to prolong his and the country’s agony. Zimbabwe is a country in deep trouble. It was once among the most vibrant and prosperous economies of the continent. Today, in the townships, it is hard to eke out a living with unemployment and inflation at 100,000 percent or even more. What used to be a regional economic model has, in two decades, been reduced to a basket case. With an unemployment rate of some 80 percent, around three million of Zimbabwe’s 13 million population has left the country in search of work and food as even basics such as bread and cooking oil are now hard to find. In recent years, Zimbabwe has been plagued by the world’s highest inflation, as well as acute food and fuel shortages, which have driven many voters to back the opposition. It is nothing less than a wonder, given the economic straits most Zimbabweans are in, that the elections were held in peace. That may be because the situation is not as bad as outsiders think. To listen to the international media, one would imagine that millions of Zimbabweans are gasping to see the back of Mugabe. Yet even his critics concede that he is popular in the rural areas; his land-grab policy won him accolades among his own people as well as throughout southern Africa and beyond. The income gap between townspeople and those in the countryside is considerable, but not growing. If anything, the gap is actually closing. Indeed, at least in some rural parts of the country, peasant farmers can live off the land.
Mugabe’s hold on Zimbabwe might be tenuous but never underestimate the man. He is a seasoned politician and knows that he still can hold on, even if he did lose the presidential election. The Zimbabwean Army, the police and the Central Intelligence Organization are all behind him as are many of his people. And so too is his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front which has ruled Zimbabwe firmly since independence from Britain in 1980. Mugabe may desperately be seeking ways of clinging to power, as his rule looks to be coming to an end. However, in the end, it might be time for Mugabe, 84, to go. And this time it is quite possible that he will.

—Arab News