Pakistan’s Kashmir policy needs continuity not change
Nasim Zehra

KEY developments within our region are likely to influence how Islamabad and Delhi will approach, in the weeks and months ahead, the settlement of the Kashmir issue. These include Pakistan’s new government, the October Jammu and Kashmir state elections, the continued huge presence of Indian security forces (especially in the valley), the new wave of criticism by the APHC leadership of Islamabad for pursuing the post-Jan ’04 Kashmir policy that neither improved the human rights situation nor genuinely facilitated cross-LOC Kashmiri movement and cooperation, the continued criticism of Delhi by the APHC and electoral forces including NC and PDP for continued human rights violations and the recent declaration of independence by Kosovo and its recognition by some important countries.
At the core of Delhi’s policy has been the seeking of a solution to Kashmir through ‘containment’ of the problem using the internal track dialogue. The Congress government has, while retaining the huge and oppressive presence of security and para-security forces, engaged in dialogue with J&K’s electoral forces. Delhi has meanwhile unsuccessfully offered dialogue to the APHC leadership and remained unengaged with the third plank of Kashmiri politics, that is, the largely depleted yet still present militant forces.
Meanwhile, Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) agreed upon by Islamabad and Delhi, aimed at increasing cross LOC movement, seem to have been virtually still-born. The cross-LOC bus service, for example, takes across the LOC maybe fifty Kashmiris a week. So cumbersome is the paper work that the security clearance for intending travellers takes months at end. With such an impediment to civilian movement, any hope to see greater movement of goods and non-Kashmiris would be unrealistic. Hence the CBMs which were intended to ease the social and emotional pressures on divided Kashmiri families have drawn almost a blank.
Similarly, other political initiatives, especially the four point formula put on the bilateral table by General Pervez Musharraf in 2004, also drew a blank. The formula which suggested demilitarisation to the pre-1989 position, self rule and self governance by the Kashmiris and subsequently Joint Management of some areas on both sides of the LOC by Pakistan and India, found no response from Delhi. The complexity of Indian democracy pleaded paralysis as the generally accepted Indian analysis was that it was not easy for a democracy to respond to what a one-man rule can easily offer. Indian politicians did not rise to the challenge of leadership. Musharraf’s offer was not isolated from the political thinking in Pakistan. The politically inspired occasional criticism of Pakistani politicians notwithstanding, the general’s four points were only a logical progression from what the elected leader Nawaz Sharif and Atal B Vajapyee had agreed upon at the Lahore summit.
In fact, Musharraf has worked on building support for the four points across the LOC and even internationally. PDP less and the National Conference more, supported the points. Omar Abdullah met General Musharraf in 2006 and earlier in London in 2005. Abdullah saw wisdom in breaking the political logjam on J&K and supported the initiative. Similarly, Musharraf directly took the APHC leadership from both sides of the LOC plus indirectly the militants in confidence. There was across the board, even if grudgingly, an appreciation of Musharraf’s intent. His out-of-the-box thinking on Kashmir was an effort to move forward on the 60 year-long political impasse on the dispute. It was to be a step forward not a solution. It also received international support.
Delhi’s refusal to reciprocate on the four points was publicly criticised by the NC leadership. Omar Abdullah went on record to say that Delhi did not want to respond until time ran out.
Delhi’s Kashmir policy continues to yield continuing Kashmiri alienation vis a vis Delhi. Results of surveys ranging from the 2007 Hindustan Times to the 2006 New York Times and the NDTV-Dawn all indicate 70 per cent pro-Azadi sentiment. Yet Delhi has still not seen reason to break the political and security apparatus-dictated status quo, which sustains, if not heightens, this sentiment.
With the new government in place, the refrain from Delhi and the Srinagar’s electoral forces that they hope the new government would keep the dialogue process moving on Kashmir is misplaced; as is the concern that the new political leadership may derail the dialogue process. There is also concern even within Pakistan that the new government may put Kashmir on the back burner, in deep freeze or give unilateral concessions to India. None of this is at all likely.
The debate within Pakistan on how to move forward on Kashmir revolves around three approaches. One is the future-oriented approach. This approach advocates that since at present Pakistanis and the Kashmiris are not in a strong position to negotiate a settlement of the disputed territory according to UN resolutions, the settlement question must be put off for a better time. For now, some in Islamabad and Srinagar argue that it should be put on hold, while others in both the capitals argue that while settlement can come later the Kashmiri struggle and Islamabad’s pressure on New Delhi, in all its dimensions, must continue. The second approach, advocated by sections in Islamabad and in Srinagar, calls for engaging with New Delhi on finding a solution. This approach seeks an end to the dispute, allowing improved Pakistan-India relations.
The third approach is a combination of the first two. It believes Kashmir is a living dispute and one that will not go into freeze. Equally, it is not one that can be solved through an instant or defined solution. Instead the problem, involving the Kashmiri people, requires initiation of a process, which must focus on steps that begin to improve the political, physical and economic conditions of the Kashmiris. The yardstick of how correct and credible is such a process is the degree to which it is accepted by the majority of Kashmiris across the LOC.
There is continuity in Pakistan’s policy on Kashmir as it began with the Nawaz Sharif–Vajpayee initiative. It is a policy that adheres to the third approach. And there is no doubt that the new government in Islamabad will move forward with the third approach as it will use its diplomatic and political capital to improve the human rights situation in the Valley, increase cross-LOC movement and cooperation and end Delhi’s policy of militarisation or as Farooq Abdullah said in 2007 of turning J&K into a military garrison.
With Pakistan and India both on an even keel as democratic states, Delhi must reciprocate Islamabad’s initiatives on Kashmir without seeking refuge in democratic paralysis. It is in Pakistan and India’s interest to turn Kashmir into a bridge for genuine cooperation from which Kashmiris, Pakistanis and Indians will jointly benefit.

—Khaleej Times

Economic issues draw concern
Yu Shujun

PREMIER Wen Jiabao devoted much more space to economic issues when delivering this year’s government work report at the opening meeting of the First Session of the 11th National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5, setting goals for economic development in 2008 and putting forward major tasks in order to reach the goals. At the NPC deputies’ panel discussions on the report, issues related to economic development inevitably became hot topics. Whether high-ranking economists, local officials or grass-roots deputies—all offered their advice, though from different perspectives. China’s economic growth has been on the fast lane since 2003, with overheated investment, excessive credit and money supply growth, and an ever-increasing trade surplus. “I think the key problem is from overheated investment,” said Lin Yifu, the World Bank’s newly appointed chief economist and also a new NPC deputy from the Beijing delegation.
“Investment has grown fast and production has been boosted,” said Lin. “Because domestic demand has been insufficient, the trade surplus has swelled, bringing in more and more foreign exchange reserves. To avoid fluctuations in renminbi exchange rate, China has had to increase its money supply and provide more loans. The oversupply of money and credit will facilitate investment again. Now we’re in such a vicious cycle.” “We should use economic, legal and administrative measures to cool down overheated investment,” said Lin. “However, the in-depth reason behind the problem, I think, is inequitable income distribution,” Lin continued. Lin suggested that China should develop regional small and medium-sized banks to provide financing services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). With this, labor-intensive SMEs can create more job opportunities, low income groups can earn more, and the current inequitable income distribution pattern can be changed.
Lin said that investment and consumption will continue to rise, and energy product prices in the international market will remain at a high level. “Under these circumstances, I totally agree that the government work report has set the target for this year’s CPI growth at around 4.8 percent, and emphasized continuing to follow a tight monetary policy.” While adopting the tight monetary policy, we can have two choices, said Lin. One is instituting a more flexible interest rate policy and the other is raising the reserve requirement ratio. “Both are important, but I myself suggest using the interest rate policy more,” said Lin. With the CPI at a high level, interest rates will become negative if they aren’t raised further. Money will flow to the stock market and real estate market, which is not beneficial for the healthy development of capital and property markets. SMEs can afford a higher interest because what they care about is not the interest rate, but whether they can get loans. However, the direct effect of raising the reserve requirement ratio is the reduction of credit. It’ll become more difficult for SMEs to get loans.
“Under these conditions, the interest rate policy should be emphasized,” Lin suggested. Lin’s advice on developing regional small and medium-sized banks to provide financing services to SMEs is to some extent echoed by Yuan Jinlin, Director of the Development and Reform Commission of northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Premier Wen’s government work report says China will extensively promote the large-scale development of the western region. “But with the extensive implementation of this strategy and economic growth of Ningxia, rural areas in Ningxia increasingly demand financial services,” Yuan told Beijing Review on the sidelines of their group discussion.
However, state-owned commercial banks are substantially cutting their outlets at the county level or below, shifting their business scope to large cities or large enterprises. “This resulted in the severe shrinkage of the financial system in rural areas,” Yuan said. In some townships, there is not even one banking outlet. Ordinary people have no way to deposit their money, much less enjoy other financial services. “I suggest that more financial services be provided while promoting the development of the western region,” said Yuan. Premier Wen’s government work report specially mentioned that “the recent disaster resulting from snowstorms caused significant losses to China’s economy…. We will continue the work of repairing the damaged facilities and minimizing losses from the disaster.” As a deputy from Tengtou Village of Fenghua, Zhejiang Province, Fu Qiping, Secretary of the CPC Tengtou Village Branch, showed his concern about the vulnerability of China’s agriculture to natural disasters.
Fu described China’s agricultural situation as “fragile.” The month-long snowstorms that struck southern provinces early this year brought great losses to these regions, including Fu’s hometown. “Only a limited amount of the loss can be covered by agricultural insurance,” Fu said. “Most of the restoration work needs government subsidies.” Fu thought that the agricultural insurance market was in a Catch-22 situation: If the agriculture insurance rate is set by the market, farmers can’t pay their premiums. Meanwhile, if the insurance rate is set at an affordable level for farmers, insurance companies won’t have that much capacity to repay. “Agricultural insurance could become a compulsory insurance, and the government should have more preferential policies and subsidies for it, so that natural disasters and market fluctuations that affect agricultural production can be reduced or avoided to the maximum,” said Fu.

(The Daily Mail-Beijing Review Articles Exchange Item)






Tolerance of diversity
M J Akbar

THE rich are different from you and me; they have the same airport. The first casualty of globalization is identity. Every airport in the developed, or wannabe-developed, world looks the same: A confusion of corridors, conveyer belts, junk shops and a profusion of winding queues at immigration. You can recognize a nation from the look in the queues. There is faintly-hidden arrogance on the faces of officials in receiving countries, and barely-disguised relief in the manner of passengers chasing some better horizon than their native land can provide. Delhi is somewhere in the middle, there is both ebb and flow. The one thing in common between ebb and flow is torture. Signs advertise that the airport, currently in a compete mess, is on its way to becoming world class. This is apparently considered good news by the developer and presumably the Civil Aviation Ministry. We will know what they mean when we finally see what we get; in the meantime don’t raise your hopes too high.
Denpasar airport, in Bali, the exotic Hindu island on the southern tip of the Indonesian archipelago, is a gateway to the lost world of charm, grace and the sheer opulence of an environment lush with rain, paddy and forest. There is nothing artificial about the welcome in the Balinese smile, which begins in the eyes and spreads gently across the face. The airport is designed like a home, airy, free, spacious, sun-lit. It is an illusion of course but you get the sense that there are no walls in Bali. The architecture of wood breathes with the quiet harmony of nature. The doors are exquisitely carved, but they seem designed to remain open rather than slam shut. Stone comes to life in brilliant statuary, as deities and demons from a rich and vibrant belief system that ill-deserves the nomenclature of mythology. Epic scenes from the Mahabharata are carved high into the air at intersections of the road that takes us from Denpasar to the rain forest and Ayung River Valley of Ubud. Lord Krishna and Arjuna, or Arjana as it is pronounced here, on the battlefield at Kurukshetra are favorites but there is a splendid variety from other events of the great epic. The genius of this art also lies in its anonymity. This is the work of a people and their faith, not an artist and his ego.
The drive to the Alila Ubud hotel is a journey through many pasts. Language is a primary vehicle of multiple identities. One expects a nameplate like Pt. Cerana Citra Kartika, or a Krisna Yuva Dana, a Bhakti Shop or a Nira Gallery. But there is also an advertisement for an Amerikan Pillo. The bus stop is a page from the chapter on European colonization. It is called “Halte Pesanggeran”. Tourism flows through the sinews of the Bali economy. The street is lined with countless shops churning out Buddhas and deities that will seem fashionably antique in some Western drawing room. The West begins next door, in Australia. The printed advice we receive at the hotel is frank. Never buy anything without haggling. All prices should come down by thirty to forty percent. But such candor destroys the charm of haggling. There is no sense of victory when you know that prices have been marked up already to account for the haggle. A shopkeeper must look as dejected and defeated as a Lebanese trader who has sold a magic carpet at a plastic price. The Balinese look too happy.

—Arab News