Birth pangs of saner politics?

PAKISTAN’S political developments have presented a good manner of poetic justice of late, with recently all powerful President Musharraf humbled at the polls, having to administer oath as prime minister to a man he kept behind bars for five years, whose first order as premier was immediate release of deposed judges the former general wouldn’t hear of discharging as long as he called the shots in Islamabad. Washington has no doubt been relayed by its high level delegation holding important talks in Islamabad that with Musharraf’s sidelining from the main decision making process, the core of his, and by proxy Washington’s, policy might be on its way out as well. Nawaz Sharif’s uncompromising tone in delivering to the US envoys that the days of Musharraf’s one-man-show are over, and the way forward on the war-against-terrorism would be debated in parliament, hint at a revision of the pretty much unquestioned implementation of US diktat that Pakistan has been carrying out till now. This ought to prompt a welcome breather in troubled areas in the frontier that are bearing the brunt of the crackdown on extremist elements, raising hopes of a negotiated settlement and lowering chances of increased suicide violence in major cities. It would not be surprising, though, to see parliament settle for little deviations in ongoing policy, once the matter of $10 billion in annual aid and the extremists’ rigid demands are brought into consideration.
However, ever since the February 18 shocking rout of the Musharraf-faithful PML-Q, it seems difficult to deny that Pakistan has been on a democratic upswing, with people unhappy with the highest offices prompting far-reaching changes. Already, elements the Musharraf dispensation reviled for most of its stay in office are at the helm, taking decisions that negate the most serious initiatives of the outgoing government. The judges’ release scripts a landmark event even though the matter of their reinstatement hangs in the air. It marks the end of the practice of chastising the judiciary when it refused to toe the high-level line, something that has been prevalent for most of Pakistan’s troubled history. To say that election results have rid Pakistan of its ills would border on insanity, about the same level of lunacy that politics of dictatorship and coercion have featured time and again in a struggle that has yet to achieve success. Things might well get worse before they get better, but going by on-ground developments, it seems Pakistan’s recharged public stands ready to bear the costs involved in finally erecting a viable democracy as inevitable birth pangs of a much yearned for sanity in its politics.




Test in Basra

THE Iraqi government is seeking to reimpose its control of Basra, the country’s second city. Although this moment had to come — for any part of the country to be run as a lawless fiefdom is totally unacceptable — there is no denying it is a high-risk move for two key reasons. This is the first major test for the new security forces, 50,000 of whom have been deployed into Basra. Will they demonstrate the training and ability to overcome the militias that have effectively run this city even before the British withdrew to the outskirts last September? Early evidence is that the gunmen have put up stiff resistance. If the fighting drags on, not only will the security forces face humiliation, but ordinary Basrawis will be in dire straits as they run out of food because markets are closed and the streets are battle zones. The second concern is that the Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr will denounce the truce which, since it came into effect last August, has done a great deal to reduce the level of violence in much of the country. Yesterday he threatened civil conflict. His men have thrown Iraqi police out of his political power base — the run-down Sadr City district of Baghdad where some two million Shiites live. But it remains to be seen if he really intends once again to take on the government and the occupation forces behind them.
For a start, the Mehdi Army is not the only government target in Basra. The Badr Brigade allied to the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and the smallest militia, the Fadhila, are also being assaulted by Iraqi police and army. These groups had been fighting each other and have been implicated in oil and narcotics smuggling. Outright criminal gangs have also been operating alongside or between them. The anarchic result in Iraq’s premier port and oil center is a serious threat to economic recovery. It is also questionable just how much control Sadr now has over neighborhood warlords who claim to act in his name. Despite renewing the cease-fire last month, so-called “rogue” elements throughout the Mehdi Army have stepped up attacks, particularly against Americans. It may be significant that Sadr’s office has blamed the government’s Basra assault on “politics” ahead of expected provincial elections this autumn. This suggests the militia leader still values the political process. He quit the national unity government in November 2006, protesting Premier Maliki’s meeting with President Bush. The following January, Sadr and his people rejoined only to quit again four months later, demanding a timetable for the coalition’s withdrawal. He may have been influenced then by Iran president. President Ahmadinejad’s important recent visit to Baghdad, however, emphasized the need for political solutions, effectively wrong-footing Sadr’s tactics. The Iranian president may also have accepted, at least in principle, that Basra could no longer remain in divided chaos. The question for the militia leader is whether his power would increase through renewed conflict or if he tried to take his supporters back into the political process.

—Arab News