India, IAEA pact close but US nuclear deal clouded

NEW DELHI—India is close to finalizing the text for an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, but may fail to save a nuclear deal between New Delhi and Washington that remains clouded in political uncertainty.
The nod of the IAEA is among several mandatory clearances required for the contentious India-U.S. nuclear pact that will give India access to American nuclear fuel and technology. Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said talks had concluded with the IAEA and an agreement could be reached. A source familiar with the India-IAEA talks in Vienna said a final text was close, but India still needed to confirm that there is an agreement on the text.
“Until then there is in fact no agreement,” the source said on Sunday. India’s confirmation has been held up because the communist allies of the government oppose the nuclear deal, threatening to bring down the coalition government if it went ahead. Mukherjee has so far stayed away from a showdown with the communists, saying the government would not move on the deal without the support of the leftists.
Caught up in India’s domestic politics, time is running out for the deal. Still to come are clearances from the IAEA board of governors and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group. Then, the deal goes to the U.S. Congress for final approval. The U.S. has said the pact may fall through if it doesn’t reach the U.S. Congress by July as a short legislative calendar before the November 4 U.S. election could complicate its passage.
Mukherjee said his government had told Washington it cannot work to a deadline. “There is a timeframe because they have an election process, Mukherjee told New Delhi Television in an interview aired on Sunday. “But so far as India is concerned we have mentioned to them that it is not possible for us to work within a specific timeframe”. India’s coalition government has virtually ruled out signing a controversial nuclear deal with the United States without the support of its communist allies, sparking fresh uncertainty about the fate of the pact.
The communists oppose what they see as a strategic alliance with the U.S., and have threatened to withdraw vital support from the ruling coalition if it moves ahead with the deal. A voter-friendly budget presented last month fed talk that the Congress party-led government was preparing to dump its leftist allies, sign the deal and face early elections. But Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has rejected such a possibility, saying it would not be possible to sign a major international deal as a minority government, if the left pulled out.
“A minority government cannot, need not and should not sign a major agreement like this,” Mukherjee told the Outlook magazine, adding even Washington would not agree to it. The Indian government has said it is seeking the broadest possible political consensus over the deal which Washington says should be concluded before the November 4 U.S. election. The deal will give India access to American nuclear fuel and technology. “First the consensus will be with the supporting parties,” Mukherjee said. “Then we shall try to evolve a larger consensus.
“If the government does not exist, how can there be an agreement? So we shall have to carry them (leftists) with us, if possible.” Mukherjee’s comments came after the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) hardened its stance and gave the government until March 15 to convene a meeting to discuss the status of the deal. The communists had allowed the government to negotiate global approval for the deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but have indicated they will be looking for a firm commitment at that meeting not to “operationalize” the deal.
“If the government thinks that after arriving at an agreed text with the IAEA they can proceed to take the next steps for operationalizing the agreement, they are mistaken,” an article in a CPI-M mouthpiece, People’s Democracy, said. “The future of this government depends on the decision they will take.” Congress needs the support of the communists to get its budget through parliament, with a vote likely in early May.
For the time being, keeping its coalition together could be the main priority, even if that means promising not to advance the nuclear deal, analysts said. The deal, to become effective, has to be ratified by the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group after clearing the IAEA and placed before the U.S. Congress for a final approval. Washington has said time is tight and a short U.S. legislative calendar ahead of the American presidential election could complicate the deal’s passage.—Agencies