Putting food on the table
Lan Xinzhen

IT’S Spring Festival time and with it comes the most brisk consumer spending of the year. Fully aware of this, the Chinese Government is deeply anxious about negative public sentiment over continuous price hikes, launching several policies to stabilize prices in the first half of January. These policies are expected to take the edge off a period when the majority are feeling the pinch in the place where it hurts most-their wallets. However, whether these policies can really curb the pressure of inflation and regulate the upswing of a rampant consumer price index (CPI) remains to be seen. After all, when the market economy sparkles, price changes are mainly decided by the market itself, and not by government decree.
Firm measures
From January 1, China began to collect a one-year-long provisional export tariff on 57 categories of raw grain and powder products such as wheat and corn. At the same time, China also began to adopt export quota license administration on some grain powder products. From December 20, 2007, China abolished tax rebates on exports of 84 categories of raw grain and powder products. The additionally collected tariff on these items shows the Chinese Government’s intention to use taxation as a means to stabilize domestic grain supply and alleviate the overly rapid increase of consumer prices.
On January 19, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, stipulating temporary price freezes on gasoline, natural gas and electricity, as well as freezes on urban gas, water, heating and public transport charges, and fees for medical treatment will also be stabilized. Prices of major fertilizers, such as carbamide and phosphate fertilizers, will be kept steady too and can in effect only be raised on account of cost increases and after being approved by the regulator. All these involve people’s daily lives and agriculture capital goods. Zhou Maoqing, researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said stabilizing prices of public utilities and services is beneficiary to tackle social problems caused by inflationary pressure.
On January 14, the State Council held a televised conference in which local government officials throughout the country were instructed to secure market supplies and deploy measures of price regulation with immediate effect. On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) began to introduce temporary interventions on the prices of some important commodities and services, requiring 12 companies, such as Ting Hsin International Group and Uni-President China Holding Ltd., two big instant noodle makers, Luhua Group, an edible oil heavyweight, and major dairy firms Yili Industrial Group and Mengniu Dairy, to receive permission from the NDRC before raising prices. In these industries, the output of several large companies takes up a large share of the nationwide market.
Moreover, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the country’s central bank, also accepted suggestions from scholars, speeding up the pace of the yuan’s appreciation. Some economists believe that faster yuan appreciation will reduce prices of imported commodities and then curb inflation. The yuan’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rose from 7.3046 on December 30, 2007, to 7.2418 on January 17, almost creating a record high every other day. In terms of the monetary policy, China will tighten it in 2008. Controls over the total money supply and credit supply will be stricter so as to curb excessive expansion of aggregate demand, and prevent a rebound of fixed-assets investment, a continuous increase in trade surplus and quickfire price hikes. On January 16, the PBOC announced that it would raise the reserve requirement ratio of all commercial banks by 0.5 percentage points from January 25. The ratio now stands at 15 percent, a historical high.
A stable table
To some companies, the government’s price stabilization policy comes as a warning, because many companies are not pressured to raise prices and do so simply to follow the trend set by others. Master Kong, an instant noodle brand under the Ting Hsin International Group, one of the 12 companies that need permission from the NDRC before raising prices, saw its business volume surge 40 percent and the gross profit surpass 24 percent in the first half of 2007 when grain prices were increasing fast. But in July 2007, together with other instant noodle producers, it raised prices with the excuse of cost increases.
Dou Erxiang, researcher at the Financial and Industrial Development Research Center of Peking University, deems that the government’s measures are of great importance, especially as a deterrent to companies raising prices in conspiracy or complicity, suspending or restricting supplies and hoarding profits. According to Dou, it is estimated that the CPI still remained high in December 2007. In early 2008, some companies already began to raise prices to comply with market price trends. Tough administrative measures being used by the Central Government to regulate prices are relieving a potential emergency. Zhou Wangjun, Deputy Director of the Price Department of the NDRC, says that when prices are increasing, the country should first adopt economic and legal means to regulate them. The administrative measures now adopted are supplementary, aiming at preventing a rapid increase in price levels and establishing stability. According to him, at present, China’s fiscal revenue and foreign exchange reserves are increasing fast, while economic strength and regulatory capabilities are greatly improved. In addition, said Zhou, grain production has seen a bumper harvest for four consecutive years, pig breeding and edible oil plants are recovering, the supply of capital goods has increased markedly, and the supply of industrial consumer goods now exceeds demand. These factors indicate that the Chinese Government is able to stabilize the market supply and prices.
Illegal pricing
However, illegal pricing is becoming more serious, disturbing the market price order and corporate operations, something that has to be stamped out, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. “What the government intervenes in is the unreasonable price adjustments by some companies. After the spate of price hikes disappear, the government should lift the intervention measures accordingly,” said Zhou. However, Zhou admits that it is difficult to say when prices can stabilize. According to the “Economy of China Analysis and Forecast 2008” issued by the CASS, China is in a period of price hikes and the CPI will rise about 4 percent in 2008, slightly lower than its 4.8-percent increase in 2007.
Zheng Chaoyu, professor of economics at Renmin University of China, said that the price increase will decline, but that it’s difficult for the absolute price level to decrease. In his opinion, the most important factor to decide price levels is cost. Take grain price as an example. Because of the increase of capital goods and labor prices, the cost of grain production is increasing. Conversely, as China’s trade becomes more and more liberalized, grain price hikes on the global market have driven up grain prices in China.
January is the time for provincial-level people’s congresses to convene their annual sessions. Faced with the surging prices, some deputies to the people’s congress in Guangdong Province even proposed to adopt a system of using coupons for buying daily commodities if prices continue to rise. Before the 1990s, China had adopted such a system. At that time, people needed coupons to buy grain, clothes, oil and meat. The root cause of this system was that commodities were in seriously short supply and had to be allocated to people through the use of coupons. In effect coupons can neither increase supplies nor help to tackle price hikes.As online surveys carried out by websites such as sina.com reveal, stable commodity prices are the biggest wish of the Chinese people in 2008. NDRC’s Zhou hopes this wish can be realized sooner, rather than later.

(The Daily Mail-Beijing Review  Articles Exchange Item)




Afghanistan: India’s new domain
Furzana Shaheen

AFGHANISTAN is passing through a nightmare of turmoil created by ‘covert wars’ involving regional players. Kabul has long been the arena for fomenting trouble against Pakistan by the Indian agencies. Historically, apart from the five years of the Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001, India has enjoyed good to excellent cultural and economic relations with Afghanistan. The fall of Taliban and the return of the Northern Alliance have come as fortuitous windfall for Indians. They have dug-in in Afghanistan again, which is not merely to have influence there but to vie for the ‘Great Game’ as well. New Delhi is over-ambitious to acquire dominating role in this game. It is not surprising that India’s frenzied engagement in Afghanistan is increasing day by day.
India is supporting the Northern Alliance - the potpourri of warlords, which forms major part of the Karzai regime in Kabul. Many Afghans since the ouster of the Taliban regime had pinned their hopes on the new parliament to tackle the present division and political rivalries, but all of their hopes vanished after they saw senior Northern Alliance war criminals and rights abusers of the past in the present parliament. India is playing active role in support of the Northern Alliance and her involvement in Afghanistan is supported by the Afghan Government. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry officials, New Delhi has a special role in shoring up the Northern Alliance, which is battling the Taliban.
Northern Alliance dominated Afghan Government is acting on the whims of India and Karzai is playing in the hands of Indian masters who are using him to fulfill their vested interests. According to Afghan sources, Indian intelligence agency RAW’s (Research and Analysis Wing) Chief Ashok Chaturvedi treats ‘Karzai like a servant rather than a head of state and speaks to him while chewing and spitting out tobacco, President Karzai even complained to Manmohan Singh over the way he is spoken to by the RAW Chief. Arrogance and contempt with which Afghan leaders are being treated by Indians shows who is actually in power controlling and contouring both the national and foreign policy of Afghanistan. For India knows it is impossible to keep the Afghans under her thumb in contrast to dictate the ruling elites of Afghanistan.
Afghan Government’s weakness, corruption and dishonesty to its people has not only brought disgrace to whole nation but has also put the sovereignty of the country at stake. Now, Afghanistan’s endangered sovereignty and independence is visible with the naked eye. Kabul is becoming India’s new colony and New Delhi considers her as a part of India. New Delhi has hijacked the Afghan intelligence and has completely dominated the affairs of Afghanistan. Kabul has become a playground of foreign intelligence especially RAW and it has made its strong influence in Afghanistan- politically, diplomatically, economically, and culturally.
Reportedly, India is using Northern Alliance to neutralize all the advantages and exploit all the opportunities to destabilize Pakistan from Afghan soil, which is the high priority point on the Indian agenda. RAW is not only involved in stirring up trouble inside Pakistan but its name is also associated with terrorism. Afghanistan has become an increasingly fertile ground for RAW for its seeds of violence and terrorism. It also upped the violence ante by brazen acts of terrorism which have the RAW hallmarks over them. By waging her influence over Afghanistan, India is keeping the ground ploughed for RAW to persistently work on the agenda of tearing Pakistan apart.
Indian diplomatic enclaves have become nodes for clandestine intelligence footwork; feverishly working not only against Pakistan but Afghanistan as well. Indian networking has expanded massively in Afghanistan and her diplomats are launching their hectic efforts to destabilize Pakistan and to assuage Pakistan’s interests in Kabul but Afghan Government has turned a blind eye to the Indian disruptive activities.
The intelligence dimension of the India-Northern Alliance relations is developing on a fast track. Indian officials have been tasked to layout espionage networks, cultivate agents, recruit informers monitor specific areas and organize hit jobs. Indians are lavishly distributing funds to win over the loyalties of local warlords who are willing to tow the Indian line because of the money they receive from India in return. RAW is putting its clandestine operations into high gear to compound the situation, which is already complex from Pakistan’s perspective.
Afghan intelligence agency RAM (Riyast-i-Amniyat-i-Milli) is also paving easy way for India to increase her hegemony in political, economic, and cultural arenas. RAW’s illegal activities undertaken from Afghanistan against Pakistan are the result of continued Indian interference in Afghan domestic affairs. Due to Afghan Government’s blessings, it has become easy for RAW to perform disguised role under diplomatic cover in Afghanistan. High ranking officials and political leaders in Kabul have developed secret relations with RAW. Due to such relations, rather than getting information RAW is taking information from them and use it against Pakistan because the main aim of RAW is to support Indian interests from behind the screen.
India has sought an alternative, indirect, and covert mode of warfare through RAW which seek to poison Pak-Afghan relations. RAW is spotting and recruiting agents trailed them in guerilla warfare, infiltration, subversion, sabotage, and the establishment of saboteur/terrorist organizations in order to carry out suicide bombings in Afghanistan and from Afghan territory into Pakistan as well. Surely India deserves applause for well exploiting Taliban, AI-Qaeda and turbulent situation of law and order to hide her subversive activities and perilous agenda of expansionism.
Indian diplomats and RAW officials with the help of Northern Alliance have significant ingress in the Afghan ministry of tribal affairs. They are exploiting the ministry to conduct covert activities against Islamabad and creating rifts between the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indian agents are instrumental in arranging meetings of tribal elders and Afghans with dual nationalities with Indian consulate officials in Jalalabad and assisting them in recruiting agents from Pakistan’s tribal areas for activities prejudicial to Pakistan’s interests.
Pakistan has tried very hard to mend ways with India but India has always considered Pakistan to be the main opponent to its expansionist doctrine. India’s animosity toward Pakistan is psychologically and ideologically deep-rooted and unassailable. India should restrict herself from making war-ravaged Afghanistan a chessboard to pursue her own agenda. Better it would be for India to refrain from playing foul games and testing the patience of Afghans before it is too late. On the other hand, it would be better for Karzai that despite playing the ‘Indian card’ and relying 0[1 ‘alien clutches’, he should strug9.le himself to stand on his own feet and realize the bloody Indian conspiracy before time runs out.






Why Kosovo deserves independence
Ian Williams

WHEN John Bolton, Henry Kissinger, Vojislav Kostunica and Vladimir Putin line up with the fossilized relics of the Leninist left on an issue — you can be fairly sure that they are all wrong. There may be practical arguments against Kosovo’s independence, but for this motley assortment of naysayers to cite international law really has to take the biscuit. Along with what passes for leadership in Belgrade they all disregard the Genocide Convention and share an ostrich-like denial that the Serbian state under Milosevic practiced genocide and Ethnic-cleansing — or that it matters very much.
But all their pomp about sovereignty and the sacredness of boundaries does not change circumstances: Serbia as a state was complicit in what the World Court called “an act of genocide” in Srebrenica and in ethnic cleansing and mass murder in Kosovo. Belgrade, which carried on paying a pension to general Ratko Mladic while claiming it could not find him to hand over to the Hague, has now discovered an expedient attachment to international law over Kosovo. This week at the international tribunal in The Hague, the judges are considering the refrigerated trucks full of excavated corpses of Kosovars that were driven into Serbia to be buried under police barracks or dumped in the Danube. No one is disputing that it happened. It is just that the Serbian police drivers on the witness stand seem confused about which of their superior officers ordered them to do it.
Even if the leaders in Belgrade had shown any serious measure of contrition for a decade of apartheid culminating in 1998 with the massacre of thousands of Kosovars and driving the bulk of the population over the borders such acts forfeit any duty from the victims to the perpetrating state. Instead of saying sorry, they bluster about precedents in international law. But there is a very cogent and recent example. Pakistan was originally formed by the voluntary union of what is now Bangladesh and what is now left of the country in the west. You may note that, in contrast, the Kosovars were not asked about their incorporation into Serbia in 1912, or at any time since.
When in 1971 the Pakistani Army staged mass killings and rapes of the Bengalis in East Pakistan, and foolishly took on India, it lost, and Bangladesh seceded. Bangladesh became a member of the Commonwealth, recognized by almost 90 countries, and in fact a member of many of the subsidiary bodies. Its first application to join the UN became the occasion off Beijing’s first veto, since the PRC and Pakistan were close allies against India and the Soviet Union. Those who deny the Kosovars the right to secede, then, somewhat contradictorily advance the right of the Serbs in the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Northern Mitrovica to secede and overlook the circumstances. In fact, the RSK owes its present Serb majority to acts of genocide and ethnic-cleansing, and even Northern Mitrovica’s present population is based on the refusal of the Serbs there, with the connivance of UN forces on the bridge, to allow Albanians back into their homes.
In contrast, Kosovo owes its present status to an international reaction against ethnic-cleansing that Belgrade committed, and in the end the illogic of victims needing the permission of their murderers to quit will become obvious. Bangladesh became a member of the UN in 1974. Kosovo looks set to follow in the same path, with recognition from most countries in the world being followed eventually by admission to the United Nations. Like Pakistan, Belgrade’s nationalists can prance on their diminutive stage for a while, but reality will eventually intrude. Then everyone can join the EU, and the borders will be irrelevant.

—Arab News