Elections 2008: Confusing trends
Muhammad Munir

Several questions are being raised on the General Elections scheduled to be held on 8 January 2008.The main questions are: first, which party will win the elections?; second, would these elections be free and fair?; third, what impact these elections would have on the stability and security of the country?; fourth, what implications these elections will have for President Musharraf, deposed judges and the political parties both participating in the elections or those boycotting the elections?. All these questions are important and interesting but the answers of all these questions are not easy. The emerging political trends are quite different from the past experiences. There are many heavy weights of PPP that have joined PML(Q).The political divide on the basis of pro- Bhutto and anti-Bhutto does not seems to be a big factor in these elections as Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif have risen above this divide.
In view of new factors it is difficult to say which party will be able to win elections, however, according to various assessments there will be a hung parliament having a split mandate. No single party would be able to form a government.
There would a coalition government. The expected combinations include PPP and PML (N) or PML (Q) and PPP with different combinations at the provinces depending on the combination at the national level. Participation by a majority of the mainstream political parties in the election is the right decision, though the PPP and the PML-N have said that they are taking part under protest. It is clear that those who have chosen to stay away have left the field open to their opponents, which may achieve little else besides disappointing their committed voters. Each one of the three main parties PPP, PML (Q) and PML (N) is claiming to achieve thumping majority in the General Elections of 2008. According to a poll survey held in November 2007, PPP will be a leading party with 30%, followed by Sharif’s PML-N with 25% and PML-Q with 23%.
Tehreek-e-Insaaf (if it had contested) 6%, MMA 4% and MQM 2%.If we see the history of previous elections the ruling parties did not win elections due to incumbency factor. For example PPP won the 1988 elections and got 93 seats of National Assembly out of 207 seats but next elections of 1990 it lost and got only 44 seats. In 1993 elections it again won the elections and got 89 seats and in 1997 elections it lost and got only 18 seats. Likewise in 1988 IJI lost the election and got 54 National Assembly seats but in the next elections (1990) it won and got 106 seats. PML (N) lost the 1993 elections and got 73 seats but it won the next elections of 1997 and got 137 seats of National Assembly out of 207 seats. However, the General Elections of 2002 saw a different trend PML was divided into PML (N) and PML (Q). In these elections PML (Q) won the elections and got 126 seats out of 272 National Assembly seats where as PPP was the second largest party and got 81 seats and MMA emerged as the third party that got 61 seats of the National Assembly. PML (N) was on 4th position and got only 19 seats.
It is very difficult to predict which party will win the General Elections-2008.There are many factors that supports PML (Q) to win the elections i.e. its performance, strong candidates, joining of PPP and other parties leaders in PML(Q), alliance with MQM and other parties, about fifty district Nazims and support of establishment. At the same time there are negative points as well for example PML (Q) government failed to provide law and order and could not control the rise in prices, political perils of Lal Masjid operation and the issues relating Judiciary and media. All these negative points are plus points for PML (N) and PPP. These two parties with seat adjustment can further benefit each other.
Main opposition parties (Pakistan Peoples Party, Pakistan Muslim League (N), and Muttahida Majlis- e-Amal.) on July 8, 2007, issued a declaration of their demands for the elections. The important demands of the declaration were that: first, a caretaker government of national consensus is formulated in consultation with the opposition parties to hold free, fair and honest elections. Second, a neutral Chief Election Commissioner along with members of the Election Commission is appointed in consultation with the opposition parties. Third, the local governments are dissolved three months prior to the holding of the general elections. Fourth, the caretaker government of national consensus shall appoint officers with no political affiliation in Election Commission, federal, provincial and district governments. Fifth, all discriminatory election laws should be repealed to ensure even playing fields and the implementation of fair election proposals. These parties agreed to struggle collectively for the removal of dictatorship from Pakistan and confine the role of the armed forces to that prescribed in the Constitution of 1973. Immediate withdrawal of military personal from all civilian departments and posts was demanded along with closure of the political cells of all the military, security and intelligence agencies.
On the question of whether these elections would be free and fair, it is extremely regrettable that some politicians have started crying foul even at the start of the election process. PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto is leading personality talking of rigging in elections while a number of other politicians including Qazi Hussain Ahmad of Jamat-e-Islami, is also regularly telling about possibility of massive rigging. The PPP leader, who has been leveling such allegations ever since announcement of the election schedule, continues to focus on the theme for un-understandable reasons, prompting her opponents to rejoinder that she was apprehensive of her defeat in January 8 polls and that is why she is harping on the same string. Opposition politicians have expressed fear that some powerful local politicians with strong links with local bodies may try to influence the elections and try to manipulate the elections result and demanding the presence of armed forces. On the other hand rival politicians are also accusing the feudalist lords and rich-candidates may try to maneuver the election results and only presence of armed forces can prevent such moves.
Prospects of rigging are always there even in the advanced countries where, according to scientific studies, up to ten per cent of bogus votes are polled in some constituencies. Candidates and their supporters try to use every possible mean to get maximum number of votes but to speak of the rigging plan prepared by the Government is not understandable. There is a big responsibility on the President as well as of the caretaker Government to ensure free and fair elections. The Election Commission also needs to make all arrangements to ensure that the elections are conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner. The European Union will send a 50-member team to monitor parliamentary elections. A big number of observers will also be coming from USA and other countries. In view of the strict monitoring of elections by observers and media there seems no chance of rigging. However, if there are still any apprehensions then the political parties should sit across the table with the Election Commission to find ways and means to address them.
Another important issue is how to maintain law and order in the country during the elections. In the backdrop of continued suicide attacks on military personnel, the concerned authorities should make a comprehensive security plan not only to meet the threat of suicide attacks but also to ensure that elections are held in a free and peaceful environment

—The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)



Success begets success
Rakhshanda Khan Rakhshy


AIt is a proven fact of life and also an age-old saying “that a man is known by the company he keeps”. In the same manner a nation is identified by the type of its leaders, their personalities and character .It is also recognized by the type of persons whom it has elected to provide governance, if the people are competent and proficient they provide good governance while incompetent persons obviously cannot provide good governance but are a source of problems and difficulties not only for themselves but also for the entire nation. Eminent persons, with international standing obviously lend stature and credibility to the nation and confidently lead them with dignity and poise in a respectable manner amongst the nations of the world community. Those persons who have a track record of continued success are a source of inspiration and hope while those who have a mixed record of failures and successes do not essentially provide a positive sense of a progressive future for the country. It is for this reason that when a nation gets a chance to elect the representatives for its future governance, then this choice must be exercised in a very careful and discrete manner so that they become a positive source of future hope and confidence and lead the nation towards progress and prosperity.
If we look at our past, as a nation, we can clearly see the unfortunate fact that immediately after the creation of Pakistan we were plunged into a sea of problems passed on to us by our earlier rulers and our adversaries i.e. the Hindus of India who grudged us for the partition of India. We could not really concentrate on the aspects of true and sustained democracy because our attention was diverted towards solving problems that cropped up from time to time which were obvious due to the birth of a new nation denied its genuine share of assets. Our national leaders who had spearheaded the freedom struggle, left us so soon for their eternal abodes that they could not even get a chance to properly embed the true spirit of democracy amongst our masses. The leaders that followed did not either have the will to do so, or they were not competent enough ,or they were not allowed to do so by vested interests that were out to sabotage the country from its very birth.
Except for the first constituent assembly we either never got a chance to freely elect our representatives or they were thrust upon us by the turn of events. As such we do not really know the difference between inspirational leaders and ordinary traditional politicians who have been playing the game of exploitation and malutilisation of the masses for their own sole and selfish advantage. The entire gimmick of electioneering in this country had been to befool the people with false and absurd promises before the elections and to totally neglect these promises immediately afterwards in an unabashed manner without any regards to human considerations or self esteem. Once elected, the relationship with the masses was broken completely by these pseudo leaders to be recreated just before the next elections. In this intervening period the people were only reminded of their wretchedness and lack of resourcefulness in solving their own problems and creating unnecessary problems for the rulers and were advised not to waste their precious time. On very rare occasions, these elected representatives would move to do some act of kindness for the poor lot and this would be quoted again and again as a big favour done .The effort that had gone into doing such a favour would always be quoted as a hefty burden over the people to repay in an appropriate manner at the time most opportune for the lords.
The result was obviously a total lack of confidence between the masses and the rulers and apathy towards the problems that these poor people faced. There was never an effective local government system where participation of the common man could help alleviate his miseries and problems. Since there was no free media (print or TV/radio) there was no forum to give vent to the feelings or address the problems in an appropriate manner. Even if some problems found their place in the newspapers, they fell on deaf ears and earned no response from those in authority.
During the last 7-8 years the situation has drastically changed pleasantly in favour of the common man. Free press and multiple avenues available to give vent to their feelings have led to tremendous confidence in the common man in getting himself heard and his problems have begun to be addressed in a much more decent and appropriate manner. The open forum of the local government system has not only given him a share in his own governance but has given him easy accessibility to the elected representatives and also the power of accountability over those who are chosen to govern. The accessibility of the public representatives in the different forums , be it at the Tehsil or District level or the Provincial and National Assemblies, has further facilitated the job of the common man who can now easily have a dialogue with his elected representative .These elected persons are also more sympathetic, responsive and cooperative and keen to solve the problems of the downtrodden lot of the common man .
All this has come about because of the successful handling of the affairs in all spheres of government by those who have been at the helm of affairs during this time period of 7 to 8 years. Whereas the whole team of the ruling party deserves praise for this unique achievement in elevating the common man to his present rightful status, the main and actual credit should rightfully go to the person who has been at the helm of affairs and who has quietly ensured the process of devolution and ensured that the bureaucracy gets down to providing good governance to the common man rather than ‘ruling ‘ over him. This is a unique achievement of General Pervaiz Musharraf, the President of Pakistan, who has been working towards this end from the first day after taking over the reins of the country. If we enumerate the initial objectives we will be able to analyse the achievements better, so let us see the following tasks which have been accomplished with extreme precision and have either been successfully completed or are under different phases of completion: Revival of the economy. Freedom of expression (press, radio, television), Improved defence, Devolution of power, Financial discipline, Improved communications, Social uplift-better standard of living and increased per-capita income, Realistic Foreign policy, Elimination of exploitation of the common man, Reduced corruption, Cohesive internal situation, Inter provincial harmony, Stability and continuity of policy, Increased foreign investment, Increased and diversified exports, Realistic and essential imports, even though increased in volume/value.
Now it is very important that we support the effort of the government by clearly alienating ourselves with the forces of progress and prosperity. We need to show our love for our homeland by rejecting the calls for agitation and public lawlessness and refrain from participating in processions and marches. What we can do to really benefit the nation is to force the election commission to hold free and fair elections, as per the original schedule, and on our own part go to cast our vote plainly and truthfully for those people whom we sincerely think are patriotic and sincere as well as committed to the cause of improving the lot of our common man.

The Writer is an Islamabad based political analyst.






Changing into civilian clothes
Lan Xinzhen

WITHOUT a transformation 42 years ago, would there be a brand named “Changhong” in the world? It might be impossible to answer this question. When people use Changhong electric appliances, they might only be aware that these products are from a large international company located in Sichuan Province, southwest China. Many people, including young Changhong employees, know nothing about the transformation of the company four decades ago.
In 1958, the state-run Sichuan Radio Factory was established on the site of today’s Changhong Group. As a military industrial factory, it mainly produced airborne fire control radar. Employees had to accept strict security checks upon entry and exit. In 1965, however, the factory began to produce products for civilian use and its name was changed to the Changhong Machine Factory. Eight years later, the factory developed its first TV set and registered its trademark. Now, Sichuan Changhong Electric Co. Ltd., a listed company solely initiated and held by Changhong Machine Factory, has become a comprehensive multinational integrating research and development, production, sales and service of TV sets, air conditioners, refrigerators, information technology, telecommunications devices, digital receivers, chips, commercial electronics and components. Gradually, Changhong has become an internationally competitive brand and service supplier of computer, communications and consumer electronics. In 2005, Changhong was named one of the world’s top 500 brands and in early 2007, its brand value was estimated at 58.33 billion yuan ($7.88 billion).
In the past few decades, “switching from military to civilian” has promoted the birth of many large competitive companies in China. 100 billion yuan of output Yu Liegui, Vice Minister of the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (CSTIND), says that the core aim of “switching from military to civilian” is to serve the national economy through utilizing the military technologies and capabilities that have been developed over the years. At a press conference held in Sichuan on November 19, Hu Yafeng, Deputy Secretary General of the CSTIND, said that more than 30,000 advanced military technologies have been adapted for civilian use, creating an output of nearly 100 billion yuan ($13.51 billion). Since many military industrial enterprises are located in Sichuan, it has experienced the brunt of “switching from military to civilian.” Breakthroughs have been made in such industries as nuclear, aviation, photoelectric information and specialty chemical technologies, greatly improving local economic development. According to Hu, the massive production switchover from military to civilian occurred after the late 1970s. As an important part of the state development strategy, the Chinese Government incorporated the transformation into national economic and social development planning. The CSTIND became responsible for directing the transformation.

(The Daily Mail-Beijing Review Articles Exchange Item)