Continuing emergency

GENERAL Musharraf’s meeting with John Negroponte makes it clear that failing perhaps greater pressure from Washington, Pakistan is likely to stay under emergency conditions for a considerable time to come. Linking the emergency with Pakistan’s deteriorating security situation, principally the unrest in the north, means Islamabad could justify continuing with the “extra-constitutional” period till it believes the battle against terror has been won, at least on Pakistani soil. And since it is anybody’s guess how long that could take, the civil society is in for a longer choke than initially expected. That, however, only means that the government is going to face far greater agitation than it had accounted for going into the emergency. The people have already made it clear that they will not accept the harsh clampdown on civil liberties, while it seems political parties are set to unite on a common platform to agitate against what they see as an unfair election coming up in January.
To be fair to General Musharraf, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal falling into extremist hands would most likely be the gravest security threat not only for Pakistan, but also the wider world. So far he is right. But actions speak far louder than words, and his regime’s actions since Nov 3 have exposed those concerns as politically correct cover for a crack down on the irritating judiciary and media. Far from bolstering the fight against the extremists, every hour of the emergency has so far been used to come down hard on protesting lawyers, journalists and politicians. Any body breathing a word against the government or General Musharraf himself is speedily arrested, the jails now practically overflowing from the thousands unfairly detained. If these are the Musharraf regime’s battle-plans against the rise of extremism and security challenges, than the West would be better advised telling him straight sooner rather than later that Islamabad is putting the entire war-on-terror equation way out of proportion. That the battle against extremism can not be won with muscle is a lesson the Pakistani government ought to have learned better than most stakeholders. And by subduing the civil society, Pakistan’s assets run far greater risk of falling into undesirable hands. Should Musharraf continue with the army rule, there will be little left to prove he is concerned about much beyond his own personal political survival.

Deadlock over Iran

IT is difficult to see how IAEA’s latest Iran-specific report can serve to influence opinion on either side of the divide – implying increased cooperation from Teheran while at the same time hinting at continued mystery over its present actions. Little surprise, then, that both sides have strengthened their rhetoric. But if all parties engaged in tackling the deadlock are taken into the picture, Iran seems emerging slightly better than before. It was more or less clear that while Teheran and its friends (read China and Russia), would see the candid admission of past activities, mainly purchases off the black market, as a sign of flexibility, besides providing proof of the limits of its nuclear programme, the west was going to be less impressed. And neither side has disappointed – Teheran claims moral victory and demands apologies for being unnecessarily castigated, while western interests have vowed to press harder for sanctions owing to Iran’s “selective cooperation”. But the west has more of its work cut out for it. There is more frustration around the corner for the US, UK and France as they press for a third round of sanctions, threatening to choke off more economic life out of Iran to bend it into submission. However, with Russia and China in no mood to toe Washington’s line, the west is in for more bottlenecks the likes of which it is only too used to, having used its veto influence once too often in the security council to safeguard Israeli interests. Indeed, China having already pulled out of the upcoming Monday meet of the SC permanent five plus Germany, the sanctions debate is at a standstill for now.
Now, with Israel breathing down Washington’s neck, and the neocon stint at the White House not far from completing its course, concerned quarters are not entirely off the mark in fearing increased turmoil in the Gulf region from what might just be preventive military strikes against Iran’s enrichment sites, even though centcom head Admiral William Fallay only recently ruled out such an adventure. Coming back to the IAEA report, Teheran, Beijing and Moscow will rightly point out that while the agency’s concern over Iran’s present initiatives is just as strong as before, there is nonetheless a visible change for the better when it comes to the matter of increased cooperation. It is this element of flexibility that will put the blame for misadventures on Washington should its disappointment push it to ill-advised pressure moves. Clearly, only the path of continued negotiations is the way forward in this deadlock, and the pace can only be increased by flexibility on both sides.

—Khaleej Times