Bracing for bird flu Pandemic

THE death of a 30-year-old Indonesian woman of bird flu last week at Tangerang, a satellite city west of the capital, Jakarta, is reported to have taken the death toll in that worst affected country by the virus to 90. Needless to point out, it must have caused a scare. For, its latest victim came from where three children were diagnosed with the H5N1 virus last month, and two of them died. Quoting an official of the health ministry, a news agency report said now the number of cases has risen to 112, of which 90 have been fatal, saying both tests were positive and elaborating that two tests must come back positive before a patient is confirmed as having avian influenza here. Another official said earlier that the woman, who had come into contact with sick poultry near her home, had fallen sick on October 23. She was hospitalised in Tangerang on October 30 and transferred to a Jakarta hospital a day later. A health ministry official said that the authorities were co-ordinating closely with hospitals in Tangerang and had informed local health centres to beware of the virus. Now that the number of cases has risen to 112, of which 90 have been fatal, it should be frightening not only for Indonesia, but also for Asia as a whole, rather the entire world which has been bracing for the bird flu pandemic with the World Health Organisation actively involved in efforts for its prevention from a massive all-encompassing thrust. It will be recalled that it was about a month ago when the WHO warned that European plans to cope with any possible flu pandemic have major weaknesses which might lead to chaos. For as WHO had pointed out, many European governments risked “chaotic service responses and public anxiety” by leaving it up to regional or local authorities to organise drug delivery during a pandemic and giving them insignificant guidance.
More to this, it had also made the revelation that scientists feared that the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which emerged in humans in Asia in the 1990s, could mutate into a more virulent form and that it could easily be passed between humans, thereby triggering a global flu pandemic with the frightening potential to kill millions across the world. Of course, this could be the worst happening to a world where advancement of science and technology has been instrumental not only in the conquest of unconquerable ailments but also in their prevention. Little wonder, with increasing fears of impending avian flu pandemic, as the WHO also pointed out, recent scientific advances should boost production capacity of pandemic flu vaccines to 4.5 billion doses annually by 2010. Quoting Marie-Paule Kieny, director of the WHO’s Initiative for Vaccine Research, a news report stated that with influenza vaccine production capacity on the rise, a beginning was being made to inspire hope of dealing effectively with the threat of an influenza pandemic. Reference, in this regard, was made to the capability of pharmaceutical manufacturers, including global giants Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Pasteur, to boost production of trivalent seasonal flu vaccines to around 565 million doses from 350 million in 2006. Again, the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations expects to be capable of increasing capacity to one billion doses in 2010. It is, however, just another matter that this boost was found to be still short of the WHO’s target of being able to provide a vaccine to all of the world’s 6.7 billion people within six months of declaration of a pandemic.
As such, going all-out to meet the challenge in all its dimensions, the WHO will be seen to have redoubled its efforts by setting up a special advisory group to report to the organisation’s director general, Margaret Chan, on the issue. It should be reassuring to learn that the group, meeting behind closed doors, agreed to promote seasonal flu vaccine programmes, to stimulate demand, and then goad the pharmaceutical industry on to maintain production capacity beyond seasonal demand.
All this is quite encouraging on the global front. But vulnerable as Pakistan happens to be to the spread of avian flu, time has come for us to meet the challenge from mobilisation of our own resources in line with the WHO-led global effort in a big way.
 

Occupation’s hazards

THE Ethiopians in Somalia have discovered to their cost the same harsh reality confronting the Americans in Iraq: it is easy for a well-equipped and trained army to defeat in short order an inferior enemy. What follows, however, is frustration and humiliation as that enemy regroups and begins a guerrilla war against the occupying power. Regular troops may be able to score isolated victories against insurgents but since the timing of attacks is generally of the insurgents’ choosing, it is hard, if not impossible, to strike a decisive blow against them. This feeds the frustration of occupying troops which then turns to anger when their own casualties are subjected to degrading treatment by the insurgents. The mutilation of the corpse of an Ethiopian soldier which was then dragged through the streets of Mogadishu by Union of Islamic Courts supporters was an all too successful provocation. Ethiopian tank and mortar fire, allegedly aimed at insurgent positions, caused carnage among civilians, bringing to at least 60 the death toll since renewed violence gripped the city on Thursday. Both the Ethiopians along with the rudimentary Somalia government forces they support and the insurgents are accused of appalling behavior by Human Rights Watch which has called for all the perpetrators to be brought to justice. There is presently little chance of that happening. Somalia is returning to chaos and no one, least of all the country’s government, seems to know what to do about it.
The answer is nonetheless clear. The Ethiopians, like the Americans in Iraq, thought they came as liberators. In fact, they quickly became part of the problem they had allegedly come to solve. This is even truer in this particular case since Ethiopia originally said that its troops would leave in a fortnight. That promised departure long ago faded into the past and now the continued presence of Ethiopian soldiers on Somali soil causes offense to even moderate Somalis who would themselves have nothing to do with the Union of Islamic Courts. Given the historic rivalries between the two countries, Ethiopia’s continued military deployment in Somalia is a provocation rather than a way to peace. The response of its soldiers to the appalling treatment of the fallen in no way wins Somali hearts and minds. It ought instead to draw a line under Ethiopia’s intervention. Whatever Addis Ababa’s friends in Washington may think, now is surely the time to leave. Some political leverage might be possible if Ethiopia’s withdrawal were tied to a peace conference at which all parties, the rival warlords and the Union of Islamic Courts were present. Past efforts to find agreements do not bode well for any deal, but in the final analysis, this conflict is a Somali affair. The country’s neighbors, including Ethiopia, have no legitimate role except supportiveness. Somalia must in the end succeed — or perhaps fail — on its own terms. Outside interference cannot help and indeed has been a major cause of the present chaotic conflict.

—Arab News