Elections in mid-February

DESPITE the promise by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf for elections in mid-February and reports that he will stand down as head of the army when he takes the oath for a fresh term as president, it is impossible to feel any optimism as to the country’s immediate future. Former Premier Nawaz Sharif is right in describing the present crisis as “unprecedented.” Not that his solution or Benazir Bhutto’s has any prospect of ending the basic woes facing the country. The mid-February election promise is a straightforward attempt to head off Benazir Bhutto’s threat of mass demonstrations and bring her back on board as an ally. In that sense, she has scored a tactical victory even if for the moment she says it is not enough — but that is part of the bargaining process. Nonetheless, the idea that elections will bring peace is a delusion. The fate of the country’s democratic and legal institutions is no longer the prime issue. It is whether Pakistan can avoid descending into a mess. If Musharraf is forced out in this power struggle and the army returns to the barracks, there will be a power vacuum — a vacuum that Al-Qaeda and its fellow militants will fill with suicide bombs and the blood of ordinary Pakistanis. That is what is at stake. In any event, Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party and Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League are part of the problem not the answer. What did they achieve for the Pakistani people in their years in office? Their self-serving record when in office should be enough to condemn them although their supporters remain steadfastly blind to it.
There is not a shred of evidence they have changed their ways. They are still driven not by concern for the country’s well-being but by the prospect of renewed power and what they can get out of it. Benazir’s willingness first to do a deal with Musharraf and then to call for mass demonstrations to pull him down, but leaving the door sufficiently open by giving him time for a response which he has now done, screams of self-interest. Elections will not resolve the crisis. The issue now is whether law and order and the government’s writ can be re-established throughout all of Pakistan. In any event, whichever party wins the election the other will cry “foul”, with the threat of more violence and counterviolence to follow. That is what elections are likely to achieve in such a charged atmosphere. The army is the only cohesive and effective force in a country so poorly served by its civilian politicians. If it turns on itself, replacing Musharraf with another general, it will become just another player in the political arena. If it is forced back into the barracks, Pakistan will be in a real chaotic situation. That is how serious the crisis is.

Politics of oil

FOR some time now, modern day realpolitik has been reshaping global alliances, dictating economic interests to lay foundations for political partnerships and groupings. And oil still being the life-blood of the globalising world economy, it is little surprise that disturbing trends in its supply and subsequently price structure are cause for international concern. The International Energy Agency’s recent report predicting a crude oil supply side crunch that spells global inflation is timely and prompts concerned economies to take urgent steps to avoid being hit by the politics of oil as the commodity inches closer to the psychological $100 a barrel barrier with every passing day. Obviously supply constraints, refining bottlenecks, raging Chinese and Indian demand and international political blunders will not be sidestepped as oil flirts with historic highs. So it is pertinent to analyse the emerging situation as opec countries – whose oil market share is set to rise by 10 per cent in the next 20 years – are likely to emerge with a yet stronger hold on oil supplies and pricing as other producers struggle with political and geological setbacks.
As producers benefit and consumers sweat, opec will have more leverage with production, Chavez and Ahmadinejad will likely become louder while Russia’s resurgence will gain further momentum. Also, America’s multiple dilemmas will be compounded because while its occupations will become more expensive, on top of its roaring deficit and the dipping dollar, it will not be able to shrug off presence in energy rich areas. But importantly, it will make the imminent military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities less likely for fear of pushing up prices to further highs. Most significantly from Washington’s point of view, it will slowly shift the world’s dominant decision making centre away from where it’s been since the end of the Great War. The good thing likely to stem from the mounting concern is increased seriousness and in developing alternate sources of energy. Oil price has only prompted the inevitable that diminishing supplies would have done at a later date. Interestingly, emergence of nuclear, solar, wind and biofuel energy will again alter alliances since one thing it cannot change is the unrelenting global desire for dominance and progress, embodied throughout the ages in financial and military superiority that energy only lubricates.

—Khaleej Times