Inter-Korean talks

THE presidents of the two Koreas, North and South, today begin a third day of talks in the North Korean capital. That the reclusive Kim Jong Il would have been welcoming his southern counterpart President Roh Moo-hyun to Pyongyang for this summit would have been unthinkable a little over three months ago when his country tested a short range missile over the Sea of Japan.
But much has changed since then. In July the North began closing nuclear sites as part of a deal brokered in Beijing to dismantle all its nuclear infrastructure by the end of the year. The last time leaders of these two countries (which are still officially at war) met for a summit was seven years ago. At that encounter Seoul agreed to expand its economic aid to its economically-stricken neighbor. There was also a deal to allow families split by the truce line in 1953 at the end of three years of vicious fighting, to get back in touch. In the event, that program of familial reunion has been patchy. The very fact that it has carried on in a desultory fashion has nevertheless kept alive hopes that one day the two Koreas will find a way to reunification. Little of course is expected from this latest summit. That the talks so far have been described as “frank and candid” implies that words may have been exchanged. Nevertheless, the fact that Kim Jong Il has proposed the meeting be extended for an unscheduled extra day tomorrow does suggest that the two leaders have something to talk about.
Observers believe that the North Korean leadership will be seeking to extract the maximum economic benefit from the wealthy South. In exchange it will offer in effect simply the promise of good behavior. For his part President Roh Moo-hyun will be looking for more substantive concessions that will allow a gradual growth in the ties between the two states. Maybe a formal peace is finally up for grabs. An end to the war would have an immense impact certainly on the South and would enable Seoul to entirely reconfigure its now nervous and watchful stance over its the northern border. However, whatever comes out of this summit, the important thing about these talks is that they are actually taking place at all. When people are negotiating, there is always the chance of progress. When on the other hand, they are fighting, there is only the distant certainty that one day they will have to start talking. The North Korean regime is not about to relinquish power. Nor will it willingly loosen its stranglehold on a beggared and regimented population. But as a state it is an economic failure, reliant on the support of China and the generous subventions of the South Koreans. Because of Chinese pressure, Kim Jong Il and his administration know they have to make some compromises, however small. That has opened the door to Seoul and it appears that the South Koreans are only pushing at it very gently. Hawkish noises off from Washington will rightly not be welcomed.

Putin the maverick

GIVE Vladimir Putin credit where it is due: that is, for his firmness to stand by the Russian Constitution, and seek ways other than trampling it, to continue with his hold on power. Hence his move to step aside from the presidential chair, as required by the Constitution after two terms in office, next year, and get elected to lead the Duma and be the next prime minister — a part of the grand design also being to install what might be a puppet as president until 2012, when Constitution will allow Putin to be President again.
Here’s a head of state, at the height of his popularity, rejecting temptations of flouting the rules to carry on in office. Putin, if anything, is crafty. He would rather have two conditions met, in order to continue holding power in a new capacity as prime minister: namely, his party, the United Russia, must win the election in an “honest fight”, and a decent man is elected in his place as president. That might be how he seeks to adorn himself with respectability; this, for a man often scoffed at by the elite in the west and elsewhere either for his failures to meet up to the democratic standards in governance, or for his brutal suppression of the rights, say, of the Chechens. Putin is a rare specimen in politics. If his popularity is now at around 80 per cent, as is touted, the Russian president has come a long way from the image of him being a ‘shy spy’. Note the contrast with his US counterpart whose popularity is nose-diving, or those like Tony Blair who struggled hard to fend off public hostility in his final leg in office; or a Jaques Chirac, who ducked public disenchantment.
Putin is not known for his PR skills in domestic circles or in the international circuit. He, rather, has a meek exterior and a tough interior. He means business; and, the black belt that he is, he knows how to tackle his opponents: just as he turned the tables on oil giants who developed political ambitions, or on President Bush at the G-8 in Germany over the US plans to set up a Europe-based missile defence shield. It now is Putin’s Russia; a Russia that is resurgent militarily, and buoyant in the economic sense. Which, in sum, is why Russians want Putin as their leader. In a sense, that has many of us worrying, too, as to what fate awaits the rebels and the opposition in the years ahead. With growing popularity, Putin is seen to be increasingly becoming dictatorial. His decision to do away with the election of provincial heads is a case in point. Nor are the Chechens breathing fresh air. Their sense of suffocation is worsening under the Putin dispensation. Hope now is as simple as this: if Russians do not (want a) change (at the helm), Putin on his own should change (his harsh ways).

—Khaleej Times