Hollywood eyes Box Office rebound
From Bob Tourtellotte

LOS ANGELES—Hollywood’s major film studios head into the last week of 2006 breathing a sigh of relief at an estimated 3 to 5 percent rebound at domestic box offices after a worrisome slump last year.
Box office watchers expect ticket sales in the United States and Canada to end between $9.2 billion and $9.35 billion depending on how a slew of new movies, including “Dreamgirls” and “Night at the Museum,” perform in 2006’s final days.
Those figures compare to 2005’s $8.9 billion, which was down around 6 percent from 2004’s record year of $9.5 billion. The slump caused Hollywood to fret over whether competition from DVDs, video games and the Web had hurt moviegoing.
But the lesson of 2006 seems to bolster an age-old movie maxim: good films bring buffo box office; bad ones do not.
“It was important to have a 2006 that showed 2005 was a blip on the radar ... and that people still want to go to movies,” said Paul Dergarabedian of box office tracker Media By Numbers. “Moviegoing is a habit that can go hand-in-hand with home gaming, the Web and other entertainment.”
Brandon Gray, president of boxofficemojo.com, said a slate of big-budget films like “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” and mid-range hits like “The Devil Wears Prada” and “The Departed” helped buoy the industry.
Yet Gray was less enthusiastic by the strength of the box office, and he noted one key factor in the box office increase was that more movies were released this year than last. “The good news is the bleeding stopped, but there was no serious rebound,” he said.
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Gray said boxofficemojo.com has tracked the results of 578 films so far this year, compared to 544 in 2005. Of the total, 173 titles were wide-release films — movies that play nationwide as opposed to those that only play in large cities — compared to 157 in 2005.
Still, he agreed with industry experts that the movies of 2006 were better than 2005, and that translated into higher ticket sales.
Experts cited creative surprises like big-budget James Bond film “Casino Royale” with Britain’s Daniel Craig as 007 ($140 million U.S. and Canada) and mid-range comedy “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” ($123 million). Both are still in theatres.
There were unexpected low-budget hits like “Little Miss Sunshine” ($60 million), and even a film like director Spike Lee’s thriller “Inside Man” added a few plot twists to set it apart. It debuted in March, a traditionally slow time in theatres, and took in nearly $90 million.
Strong movies “took a little bit of risk ... and I think audiences know the difference,” Dergarabedian said. “Marketing matters, but you have to have the goods to back it up.”
Barring an unforeseen hit, the No. 1 movie of 2006 will be Walt Disney Co.’s “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.” “Pirates,” starring Johnny Depp as a fey pirate captain, set an opening weekend record of $135 million in July to beat the $115 million of “Spider-Man” in 2002.
Overall, “Pirates” raked in $423 million in the United States and Canada and $642 million internationally to top $1 billion worldwide — only the third film to ever do so.
The top-performing studio is expected to be Sony Pictures Entertainment, a unit of Sony Corp (NYSE:SNE - news)., which released 27 films in 2006, opened 13 of those at No. 1 and grossed $1.57 billion, so far, at U.S. and Canadian box offices.