‘China has plan to contain India by using Pakistan’

HONG KONG—The political and strategic calculations that underlie China’s approach to the border talks with India are not always easy to discern.
But a recent commentary in Ta Kung Pao, the oldest Chinese-language newspaper in China, widely regarded as a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, gives insights into Chinese leaders’ minds, highlights a ‘Taiwan factor’ in China’s calculus, and provides a chilling blueprint of China’s contingency plans to use Pakistan to “pin down” India in the event of hostilities. The commentary, by Deng Qingbo, also accuses India of being “insincere” in the matter of demarcating the Sino-Indian border, and provides a rationale to explain why the Chinese side now prefers to put the border talks with India “on the backburner”.
It notes that in a historical sense, the disintegration of the Soviet Union eased the security strain on China’s northern borders, and provided an opportunity to “actively push for the solution of border issues on the western and northern frontiers”. Settling these border disputes is important because it would then enable China to focus its energy on dealing with Taiwan. China claims territorial sovereignty over Taiwan, but the pro-independence movement on the island has in recent years been testing the limits of the mainland government’s patience. If the Taiwanese ruling party declares independence, Chinese forces will be required to move decisively against it; in that context, to avoid being tied down on two frontiers, China senses a strategic advantage in settling the dispute with India.
But China now suspects that Indian negotiators have read its mind - in particular, its keenness to settle the border dispute speedily - and are trying to use the situation to their advantage. “India wants to take of this opportunity. but its intention of occupying more areas will fail. If India feels it can take advantage of China’s psychology and. force China to accept India’s continued occupation of prosperous regions in order to ease its border pressure. to promote its social and economic development. it is wishful thinking,” cautions Deng.
But the commentary noted that the disputed area with India was nearly twice as large as Taiwan. “If China sacrifices large chunks of territory in exchange for strategic superiority in the Taiwan region, obviously it is not worth it.” Under these circumstances, it noted, China may give priority to the settlement of the Taiwan issue, and then resolve the Sino-Indian border issue. In other words, the border talks with India will be put on the backburner. The commentary notes that “nationalist sentiments” in both countries were high, and it was difficult for either side to make concessions. “India has its own weaknesses and can be pinned down” by Pakistan, which is China’s “all-weather” strategic ally. “In case India takes advantage of China’s situation and tries to harm it, Pakistan can also initiate an attack on India in the same manner,” the commentary noted. China, it said, must not be unduly worried that it might be obstructed by India when it is resolving the Taiwan issue.—APP