Shakira clear favourite at Latin Grammys
From Leila Cobo

MIAMI—Now that voting is closed for the Latin Grammy Awards, which take place Thursday at Madison Square Garden in New York, it’s time for our annual forecast of who will take home awards this year.
RECORD OF THE YEAR: If Shakira hadn’t been the most-talked-about artist of the year, in any language, if “La Tortura” hadn’t been such a great song, and if it had been a duet with anyone other than Latin Grammy favorite Alejandro Sanz, some other track might have a shot. As it is, “La Tortura” wins hands down.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR: Oooh. So hard. After last year’s win by Ivan Lins, with an album that hadn’t even been released in the United States and sold negligibly in Brazil, one has to wonder what criteria voters use. My guess is the bulk will be divided between Julieta Venegas’ “Limon y Sal” and Shakira’s “Fijacion Oral, Vol. 1.” Given the reasons cited above, Shakira will win.
SONG OF THE YEAR: Undoubtedly, the winner will be Shakira and Alejandro Sanz’s “La Tortura.” But honorary mention goes to Ricardo Arjona’s “Acompaname a Estar Solo,” which brings together all the qualities of great songwriting and interpretation.
BEST NEW ARTIST: The rightful winner is Calle 13, an act that was new, novel, outstanding and actually sold records in multiple markets. This is the only nominee in this category that made it to the Billboard charts.
BEST URBAN MUSIC ALBUM: Anyone could win and would deserve to in this category. Daddy Yankee is king of the genre, but his contestants have plenty of respectability in the genre. Considering that Yankee’s album is a live set, that Don Omar is controversial and that Wisin & Yandel are successful but not revolutionary, the best bet is Calle 13’s spunky, self-titled debut.
BEST MALE POP VOCAL ALBUM: What a tough category this is, comprising all ranges of styles. Andrea Bocelli, by sheer name recognition, will win for “Amor.” But the winner should be Ricardo Arjona’s gorgeous “Adentro.”
BEST ROCK ALBUM BY A DUO OR GROUP WITH VOCAL: In this anemic field of mostly newcomers, the heavily touted Natalia y la Forquetina will win by default with so-so album “Casa.”
BEST BANDA ALBUM: The competition here is between the big honchos — Banda el Recodo’s “Hay Amor” and Joan Sebastian’s “Mas Alla del Sol.” Sebastian has the edge given his high profile this year, his Billboard Lifetime Achievement Award and his long-running No. 1 radio hit. El Recodo is a Latin Recording Academy favorite but hasn’t been heard as much this year.
BEST SALSA ALBUM: The vote for favorite Gilberto Santa Rosa will be split among a Christmas album with El Gran Combo de Puerto Rico and a not-so-hot studio album, “Directo al Corazon.” While India and Tito Nieves are tropical stars, Victor Manuelle has kept a higher profile, down to his newly announced gig as host of the Latin Grammys. He will win with “Decision Unanime.”
BEST SHORT FORM MUSIC VIDEO: Shakira will win for “La Tortura.” But Ricardo Arjona should win for “Mojado,” a powerful vision of his ode to immigrants directed by Simon Brand.