Showdown over Iran nukes loom despite fresh talks

VIENNA—The talk was polite but the positions as irreconcilable as ever, suggesting that renewed EU-Iran dialogue this week may only have put off an inevitable showdown over Western suspicions Tehran seeks nuclear weapons. In five hours of “exploratory” discussions, Iran insisted on its right to produce enriched uranium, vital for nuclear power plants or bombs, while swearing anew that its goal was solely to fuel an energy-hungry economy.
The European Union, steeled by international alarm over recent Iranian calls for Israel to be destroyed, again demanded Tehran let others purify uranium for it as a precaution against secret attempts to turn it into material suitable for weapons. Wednesday’s reopening of talks and decision to reconvene, probably in late January, halted a slide into confrontation that could see the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) vote to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. For two years EU powers offered Iran trade incentives if it gave up enrichment work. But they froze talks in August when Iran resumed uranium-ore processing, which it had shelved after U.N. sleuths found an 18-year-old, covert nuclear program.
So why did the EU reopen talks now without requiring Iran to re-suspend uranium-ore processing? Analysts said the EU needs more time to gain Russian support for reporting Iran to the Security Council. Moscow is building Iran’s first nuclear reactor, a lucrative $1 billion stake, and says there is no evidence of an Iranian atomic bomb program. Russia, along with China, has blocked a decisive consensus for referral on the IAEA board. The two could also veto sanctions as permanent members of the Security Council. “Can the EU3 back up their bark with bite? The Russians are the key. They hold Iran’s nuclear cards because they have the fuel (for the Bushehr reactor start-up),” said Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank.
“The Europeans are buying time to try to muster Russian cooperation by showing that Iran’s stance is irretrievable.” Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the renewed dialogue put off a showdown, but the EU3 knew anyway that it could not gather the requisite broad support until after the Christmas-New Year holiday period. “In the meantime, Iran is not enriching uranium — they’ve publicly committed not to do so as long as they’re in dialogue. So the EU feels it loses nothing in talking now,” he said. The EU and United States have little choice but to pursue diplomacy because military action is unpalatable, given the quagmire in neighboring Iraq and the difficulty of bombing Iran’s nuclear installations, some of which are underground.—Agencies