The epicentre of the Oct 8 earthquake was located 95 km from Islamabad. The depth of the seismic activity was only 10 km. This was the first major earthquake to hit Northern areas of Pakistan and second in the seismic history of the region, following the Kangra earthquake of the northern India in 1905. The earth’s crust, coupled with the mantle, makes the lithosphere. Lithosphere is a patchwork of tectonic plates in slow but constant motion. There are seven tectonic plates which the earth contains. Earthquakes occur:
1) Where the stress resulting from the differential motion of these plates move about as fast as your fingernails grow; 2) Earthquakes also occur in volcanic regions and as the result of anthropogenic sources, such as mining and the removal or injection of fluids into the crust; 3) Seismic waves, including some strong enough, to be felt by human, can also be generated by explosions (chemical or nuclear), landslides and collapse of old mine shafts. We need to examine the chemical or nuclear explosions causes also in our case in particular. Animal, birds and human precursors, can help warn us about them.
The Oct 8, earthquake has raised several questions for scientists and engineers. The top most question however is, whether it is possible to predict the occurrence of an earthquake? The following earthquake-harbingers pertaining from moderate to large quakes of the magnitude of 6.0 or more on the Richter scale, may or may not indicate all the precursors. These are:-
1) Long-term precursors these indicators may provide evidence of earthquake several years in advance: 2) Medium-term precursors are triggered four to six months in advance: 3) Short-term precursors, which become apparent only 20 to 30 hours before the seismic event.
The approaching seismic events are indicated by changes in geomagnetic field, changes in gravity field, rising of sub-surface temperature, and rise in ground radio activity. All these measures indicate that something wrong is going inside the earth. However, one can’t possibly be 100 percent sure about all this. If one tunes her or his radio at 1000 KHz, then the same will be functional in the epicentre area at higher frequencies such as 1100 KHz or 1400 KHz about 10 to 30 hours before the quake. This fact is abundantly observed on the radio, television and telephone. It was first observed as such during Tashkent earthquake in 1966. This is what has been written by Dr. Arun Bapat of Pune-India.
On the other hand, Ian Sample of the Guardian / wittier of Daily News, says : “Despite decades of intense research, predicting when the earthquakes are likely to strike is a lost cause, according to reports published in the Third and Fourth weeks of October 2005. The gloomy conclusion dashes hopes that early warning systems could indeed be developed. Instead, the team urges the countries in high risk regions to develop and enforce strict building codes to ensure that homes, hospitals and fire-stations are more resilient to earthquakes.” California has been struck by six powerful quakes since 1857, and it is one of the most quake-prone sites in the world. It is mot the quakes that kill people; it’s the way houses are built and whether they are built to withstand earthquakes, which is what we have seen here in our country-Pakistan. Felix Waldhouser, a co-author on the paper in Columbia University, New York, has made this observation, in the wake of the quake in Pakistan. All the expert ladies and gentlemen from across the world, should be invited to put their heads together, sharing each other’s experiences, to streamline thinking to avert widespread destruction of life and property. When we hear about Atlanta or Mohenjo Dharo, we would like to hear the causes of them too. Global warming, of course, is mainly responsible for tsunamis, hurricanes and the like, volcanoes and earthquakes. “The Clash of Civilization”- unless the die has already been cast, should lead the world through UNO towards its survival, rather than the “End of the World”.
In some countries such as Japan and America. Tolls from quakes of 7.0 to 8.0 magnitudes are smaller than the similar magnitudes in Asian countries like Pakistan, India, Turkey, Indonesia and Iran. If relevant seismic codes are strictly followed, it is possible to mitigate the disaster. In Japan and America, the “discipline of earthquake engineering” was introduced almost simultaneously, in 1934. Progress in the areas was rather slow until mid-sixties. In 1964, the Niigata earthquake in US caused huge economic losses and took heavy death tolls. Consequently, both countries, accelerated progress in earthquake engineering.
In Quetta (Pakistan) in 1935, it rocked everything. Then, the Corps of Engineer introduced a small but very effective measure to protect the houses from seismic forces. In a brick or stone masonry wall, holes of about 10 mm diameter were provided at vertical distances of 30 to 40 cms. In these holes re-enforcement was inserted and fixed with mortar. Such measures are known as “Quetta Bonds”. British code for reinforced concrete masonry practice is known as inserting “Headers”.
By 1980’s, under US AID grant, the University of Nebraska-Omaha, had developed fanatical school books for Afghanistan’s school system and Pakistan’s schools and Madrassas. These books and systems were designed for ideological propaganda even for Talibans. It is pathetic to note that these radicalism-creating books, were used for producing fanatics to kill each other in Afghanistan, with the assistance of Pakistan. Jihadi refugee parties ran 250 schools with 43000 students at a time, by 15,600 teachers and administrators. We, here in Pakistan, believe that the present government is not less patriotic than those who claimed to be the “Front line State” in the 1980’s.
However, we were thrown away like a tissue paper even when we were members of SEATO and CENTO, after having been used by America. Which country in the Third World was not destroyed by the USA after cultivating friendly relations with it? Who drives the American impulse? Our National Assets are our last hope! We don’t want “Fair Play” through the Beurocracy! The Establishment consumes the maximum budget, followed by Tax servicing, public servicing development and lastly by the defence. Why, for heaven sake don’t we be fair to our Muml-i-kate khuda daad, and cut down the waste being drained out on this God-forsaken white elephant who having caused paralysis to our democracy, neatly lays the blame on politicians and Armed Forces, time and again? We can save a lot and spend not only on our 18000 strong youth (which should be taken upto 200.000 thousand or more), to ensure the adequate civil defence of our country. Establishment will use it as it uses the civil police. Armed Forces should train them, equip them, and maintain them under own cover. They should be subject to Pakistan Army Act. We need them badly but we must be on guards to stem from out of them, any ideological notions causing Jihadis-like psyche, that invariable drives such persons towards killing each other. Let’s hurry to concentrate and spend on human resource development.

E-mail:  mzamanmalik19@hotmail.com

Donors conference spells hope
S. Rahman

Pakistan is holding an international donors conference on November 19 next in a bid to obtain commensurate funds for reconstruction and rehabilitation in quake-hit areas with the active support of United Nations whose Secretary General Kofi Annan will be there to stir the world conscience, as usual. The United Nations, it must be appreciated, has not slacked even for a while in bringing home the realization in the outside world that the funds so far provided to Pakistan constitute just around 10 to 15 per cent of the pledges made in this connection. And moreover, even the pledges don’t suffice to match the exigencies emanating from the massive devastation of October 8, earthquake.
The aid would be rendered additionally inadequate in case of intensification of inclement weather that is now imminent with the advent of winter. The initial response to the invitations extended by Pakistan to as many as 70 countries has been good since 60 countries out of the total 70 have agreed to attend the donors conference being held in Islamabad on November 19 next. More countries are likely to follow suit, as the mood of the world community suggests. Pakistan has in fact taken the initiative being compelled by the circumstances to do so. The losses are colossal and making up the losses of such a scale may require years, even decades, apart from recurrent expenditure that adds up to 5.2 billion dollars at present, what to talk of unforeseen expenditure that may surface later on given the exceptional length of duration of reconstruction and rehabilitation operations. But the drive behind the convening of international donors conference is not only the need for funds but also certain expectations that have optimistic undertones. Islamabad administration has equally felt the need for convening an international donors conference in the backdrop of these expectations. Of course this is one important drive behind the Islamabad-organized international donors conference. Had there been no signs of hope or that of possible cooperation from the world community, Islamabad would not have been that much keen about holding the conference even though the circumstances might have compelled Pakistan to do so. The optimism is not at all unjustified even despite the inadequacy of aid flowing with a peculiar speed into Pakistan especially in the ruined areas. There are many reasons to be optimistic. Number one reason is the good response of 60 plus countries including India, to participate in the donors conference. Pakistan also hopes to see the materialization of the pledges of $2 plus billion made earlier by foreign countries although every effort at persuasion will be made to seek the matching funds of $ 5.2 billion, as determinedly declared by President General Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan has done good homework that can be aptly described as the first step at preparedness for the forthcoming donors conference. That good homework is reaching the final figure of 5.2 billion dollars with consensus at international level. That consensus would prove helpful in the donors conference since the collaborators of Pakistani experts enjoy good repute in the comity of nations while some of the countries sharing this endeavour also hold sway over international affairs thus playing a role model for others to emulate. These collaborators include World Bank, UN, US, UK, Japan and Asian Development Bank whose experts have prepared the final assessment report collectively and which has given the same figure emphasized time and again by Pakistan. Now the top-ranking international donor agencies have come in agreement with the Pakistan government on the question of estimates as against the previous position when foreign organizations had given the estimates of around $ 3 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation works that did not stand in conformity with the estimates of Pakistan government although the latter got them prepared after intensive surveys conducted by highly skilled experts of international standing. The situation now is encouraging at least from the mutually agreed estimates that now stand at 5.198 or 5.2 billion dollars. It is on one hand an accomplishment of Islamabad regime that has been able to earn this consensus of international rating through sustained solicitation of external support. On the other it is going to act as a cogent harbinger of the forthcoming donors conference’s success. It is also most likely to bolster internally mobilized resources for providing effective help to the quake-hit people. This strategy of integration or international integration is bound to yield positive results of donors conference contrary to the unjustified feelings of despair spread by some pessimistic elements who have made it a point to highlight the negative side of things by using the term ‘donor fatigue’ quite too often. It is not a hypothetical prediction but the supposedly logical outcome of the strategy of integration and assimilation. Certainly, that is the best and most practicable option to be tried in a world faced with the prospects of severe fragmentation on the basis of suspicions arising out of clash and differences of ideologies, perceptions and lifestyles. Musharraf-Aziz establishment is also trying another option and that is taking special care of making the donors conference more representative and participatory in nature. In order to achieve this objective, the government is inviting all the Opposition parties to attend the donors conference.
And as regards the presence of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan it is going to have a salutary effect in terms of abridging the trust gap between the donors and recipients of funds despite the fact that the gap is not the offspring of any slackness or any mishandling on the part of Pakistani leadership. The gap already stands abridged also due to certain other wise steps announced by President Pervez Musharraf such as that of postponement of purchase of F-17 aircraft. Some sections of the media report that even the purchase of Saab planes is being postponed in order to restore the confidence of international donors that the money received from abroad will not go astray other than in purely reconstruction and rehabilitation activities. The other favourable condition that smacks of hope is the past participation of as many as 40 plus countries in the rescue and relief operations in the early phases following the earthquake. Notwithstanding the inadequacy of foreign assistance and lethargic fulfilment of pledges made by foreign donors, the participation has been considerably pronounced. The medical teams and other personnel of many countries did not bother about the tough terrain to visit the badly hit areas. And most of these foreigners are still actively engaged in their humanitarian mission. According to the National Relief Commissioner, foreign relief missions working in the quake-hit areas would continue their activities till the time Pakistan needs their services and that not a single relief agency is going back. This is indeed good news for the hapless people of earthquake-ravaged areas. More noteworthy is the point that Islamabad administration is not showing any signs of fatigue as it is continuing to make one endeavour after the other to fight the vicissitudes emerging incessantly to date out of the disaster related with October 8 killer earthquake. The international donors conference scheduled for November 19 is an effort in dead earnest in the same direction.