WB rules out quake impact on economic growth
Bureau Report
LAHORE—The earthquake that devastated parts of Pakistan last month will
not significantly slow economic growth as donors will pay for much of
the reconstruction, a senior World Bank official said.
“Much of the impact of the damage would be sustained by the bilateral
and multilateral donors over the period of the next few years,” World
Bank Vice President for South Asia Praful Patel told on Saturday. “In
all probability Pakistan will not have to divert its public sector
funding for reconstruction. The damage to the economy will not be more
than 0.3 to 0.4 percent, and it is not going to dent the growth rate
much.”
Pakistan’s Central Bank has forecast 6.3 percent economic growth this
fiscal year. International donors led by the World Bank and the Asian
Development Bank say more than five billion dollars will be needed to
rebuild Pakistani-ruled Kashmir and other areas hit by the 7.6 magnitude
earthquake on October 8.
Islamabad has said the country has received aid pledges of 2.4 billion
dollars to help relief and reconstruct efforts following the worst
natural disaster in the country’s history. A November 19 donors’
conference in Islamabad would set the tone for reconstruction, Patel
said.
“I am confident that the money needed for the reconstruction in the
first year will be on the table during this donors’ conference,” he
said. “I am sure that apart from multilateral commitments, bilateral
commitments will also be honoured.” By official count, the quake has
killed 73,318 people and seriously injured 69,392. Officials fear the
death toll will climb as more bodies are found.
“I visited the area, and the nature of the tragedy and losses is very
grave,” Patel said, speaking at a World Bank meeting in Lahore. He also
suggested that relief efforts should be planned for the next 12 months,
not just until the end of winter, which has just started.
“I think the government and aid agencies should review their relief
strategy as the homeless people are going to need shelters
for a year or so, and not (only until) the end of March as is being
planned now.” Donors say Pakistan will need more than 3.5 billion
dollars to rebuild quake-hit towns and villages in the North West
Frontier Province and its zone of Kashmir, the disputed Himalayan state
also claimed by India.
Pakistan will also need more than 90 million dollars to revive
livelihoods lost in the earthquake and 1.6 billion dollars for relief
efforts, they say. Patel said that in order to achieve meaningful
economic progress, Pakistan would have to sustain economic growth of
seven percent for 10 to 15 years. “
The bank is confident that Pakistan can get there if the major
macro-economic indicators like inflation are managed,” he said. |
