Damage assessment report

The much awaited ‘Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment Report’ by the international agencies that has been made public before the forthcoming donors’ moot to be held in Islamabad on November 19, is a significant document particularly in terms of getting more financial assistance for the earthquake affected people from the international donor community.
The joint document has finally been hammered out, as it is to be presented in the forthcoming donors’ moot to be held in Islamabad on November 19. The Conference, which would be attended by some 70 donor countries and representative of multilateral creditors, is likely to come up with additional funding for the earthquake stricken people. From the credibility standpoint, the report would be an authentic document since more than 12 international organizations have put in a lot of labor while compiling it.
As for the financial assistance pledged so far, a total of $2.4 billion has been committed by the international community. This includes about $1 billion from individual countries and $ 1.4 billion from multilateral donors. The actual cash received thus far during the entire relief operation has been put at $200 million and the residual amount will be received throughout the reconstruction efforts. A great deal of assistance has been received in the form of goods, though. Similarly, all operating expense, including fuel cost, has become part of the overall assistance promised by donor agencies and foreign countries.
The report, which is a joint effort of the government, the WB, ADB and UNDP has come out with a revised figure about the cost of damages caused by October 8 earthquake. According to the new reconciled figures the cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation operations would be $5.2 billion, which may rise as more survey reports of isolated and remote earthquake ravaged areas in Azad Kashmir and NWFP become available. “This includes $205 million for death/compensation, $1.092 billion for relief, $301 million for early recovery, $97 million for livelihoods, $450 million for short-term reconstruction. It has been estimated that reconstruction efforts alone would require a hefty sum of $3.503 billion. These costs are in addition to the $1.6 billion the United Nations has estimated will be immediately needed for relief efforts following the disaster.”
It may be pointed out that previously both the World Bank and the ADB had put the reconstruction cost at $2.7 billion in their initial damage assessment report, though the government estimated the cost to be over $5 billion. Both the government and the donor agencies hold a number of important meetings and were able to finally remove the difference in the two figures after reassessing the damages. This was only to be expected, given the scale of the devastation caused by the worst disaster in country’s history.
Reportedly,” the reconstruction cost in AJK has been estimated at $1.963 billion while the NWFP requires $1.540 billion for reconstruction. The reconstruction cost of public assets stands at $1.384 billion, private assets $2.120 billion, urban areas $777 million and rural areas $2.726 billion…The earthquake destroyed 203,579 housing units, damaged another 196,574 and left an estimated 2.8 million people without shelter. Of the total housing stock, 84 per cent was damaged or destroyed in AJK and 36 per cent in NWFP.”
“It is estimated that the construction of private housing would consume $1.552 billion, health $303 million, education $472 million, environment $ 151 million and public administration $72 million. For physical infrastructure, the report assessed that transportation required construction cost of $416 million, water supply and sanitation $32 million, irrigation $10 million and energy, power and fuel $40 million. In economic sectors, the damage assessment report has estimated that the reconstruction cost for agriculture and livestock would be $300 million and industry and services $ 155 million.”
With regard to the reconstruction and rebuilding activities, the government is keen on accomplishing the major part of the operation in three years while the rest of the work would be completed in another two years. In this context private sector, individuals and civil society will be encouraged to engage in reconstruction and recovery process and the government would adopt coherent and ‘coordinated approaches’ to meet the daunting challenge.
According to an optimistic assessment, the disaster is not likely to cause any adverse impact on the country’s overall GDP growth. But according to the World Bank, ‘fiscal deficit could increase by about half a percent of the total gross domestic product (GDP) if remedial measures were not taken.’ The government is planning to adopt timely measures to arrest the estimated trend
In addition, the government is making every effort to ensure that relief funds are used in the most judicious, transparent and fair manner. “For the proper utilization of these funds and their supervision, two institutions – the Federal Relief Commission and the Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority (ERRA) – have been put in place. Audit of these accounts will also be carried out by the third party.” Both the agencies are “to report directly to the prime minister on each development to ensure transparency in utilization of funds. Similarly, the entire procurement process is monitored directly and reviewed by the president and the prime minister.’
In all fairness, the revised joint estimates would go a long way in enabling the government, donors and other stakeholders to make informed decisions about the future course of action to be taken with respect to reconstruction, rebuilding and rehabilitation in the worst hit areas of Azad Kashmir and Northern Pakistan. Additionally, it would provide a credible quantitative basis to the government, while it chalks out a comprehensive reconstruction strategy, asking for further international assistance in this regard.

—Mohammad A. Suhail (INP)