Agriculture is a major user of water in Pakistan. The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) had total supplies at canal head was 81 million acre feet (MAF) during 1960-61, irrigating an area of 24.2 million acres (MA). With river regulation-cum-storage facilities, canal head diversions progressively in-creased which also increased groundwater recharge. At present the irrigation system in the country is utilizing a total of 105 MAF of water at canal head level to irrigate an area of 36.0 MA.
With a fast growing population, there is a dire need to increase agricultural production, but with depleting water resources Pakistan is fast heading towards becoming a water short country. Per capita surface water availability for irrigation was 5650 cubic meters in 1951, which came down to 1400 in 2000. The minimum water requirement to avoid being a water short country is 1000. By 2012, Pakistan will have reached that stage. To save and utilize at least the available water, additional storage dams are necessary to replenish lost capacities of existing reservoirs and save escapage into the sea. Despite Mangia and Tarbela, agriculture in IBIS suffers shortages at times of Rabi maturing and Kharif sowing, affecting yields of wheat and other cash crops.
Our rivers are not enough to meet compelling irrigation needs for Kharif sowing. Early Kharif period is marked by differences on sharing of river water between the provinces, particularly major users---Punjab and Sind. The quantum of water presently available will decline due to sedimentation at Tarbela, Mangla and Chasma. It is anticipated that by 2010 the gross storage lost to sedimentation would be about 5.94 MAF---more than the original storage of Mangla. Thus in future the country may be in a disadvantageous position. Sindh will in particular be hit hard due to non-availability of carry-over storage for Kharif sowings. This has been brought into focus by the recent drought.
Besides recurring irrigation water shortages, the country passes through periodic calamities caused by floods, which cause financial loss severely and undermine the productive system. The flood peaks can be effectively controlled by reservoirs. This is particularly necessary in case of Sindh to avoid breaches of confining bunds at present causing colossal damages.
National demand for electricity keeps growing. Even low forecast suggest that the present peak demand of 9800 Megawatts (MW) would rise to 15,400 MW in 2005 and 20600 MW in 2010. Though the independent power generation units have considerably enhanced the power capacity yet they have considerably increased the cost of electricity. Therefore, a big injection of cheap hydropower through multipurpose storages, i.e. Kala Bagh Dam is the only option. Yet the critics say that due to construction of Kala Bagh dam there would be no surplus water to fill a new reservoir on Indus: cultivation in riverine (sailaba) area would be adversely affected: sea water intrusion in Indus estuary would accentuate including deterioration of groundwater quantity; mangrove forests, already threatened, would be affected adversely; fish production and drinking water supply below Kotri would also be adversely affected.
The facts are:
Dams don't consume water; they store surplus water during flood season to make it available on demand during the year. During pre-storage era of 1960-67, average annual canal withdrawals of Sindh were 35.6 MAF. After Tarbela they rose to 44.5 MAF. Rabi diversions increased from 10.7 to 15.2 MAF. It is estimated that after the construction of Kala Bagh, canal withdrawals of Sindh would further increase, coming in the crucial early Kharif cotton sowing season. The fear of desertification is not valid.
By 2010, the existing three storage would have lost 6 MAF due to sedimentation. Sind has 660,000 acres of sailabla cultivated from Guddu Barrage to sea. It is sown due to moisture provided by flooding. Sailaba crops are grown on the land adjacent to main river and creeks. The crops need more than one watering to mature. A tubewell development project could improve reliability of these arrangements. While large floods would be effectively controlled, peaks above 300,000 cusecs would be frequently coming from the new reservoir. Thus sailaba cultivation would improve.
Studies indicate that seawater intrusions is already at its maximum and there is no likelihood of greater intrusion after a new reservoir. Similarly, groundwater salinity will not be affected.
Out of active Indus Delta of 294,000 acres mangroves cover only 2.5%, the remaining area is mud-flats. Mangroves are affected due to frequency of tidal inundation being too small instead of fresh water reduction. Other causes are uncontrolled grazing and cutting. The facts reveal overall fishing production from 1983 to 2004 has increased.
Construction of a new reservoir would improve river supply assuring better drinking water. Sehwan Barrage will further improve the position. There is no doubt that Pakistan desperately needs to affectively harness its waters. Building a dam on Kala Bagh could surely be one of the best solutions. Power shortage is another important argument in favour of building a dam at Kala Bagh.
Some days ago, the Chairman Wapda gave briefing to the Federal Cabinet on the plans of creating water reservoir because country passes through periodic calamities caused by floods, which cause financial loss and severely undermine the productive system. The flood peaks can be effectively controlled by reservoirs. This is particularly necessary in case of Sindh to avoid breaches of confining bunds at present causing colossal damages.
With a cultivable land base of 76.6 MA of which only about 54.0 MA are cultivated Pakistan still has the potential of bringing 22.6 MA of virgin land under irrigation. In post-Tarbela 28 years, an annual average of over 39.0 MAF of water escaped in to the sea below Kotri. It could be effectively harnessed for use at new irrigation projects. But in the rainy season it is concentrated in about 70-100 days of summer only. No crop can be sown and taken to maturity in this short period. For throughout the year supply, this needs water, particularly for Sindh, and it can only come through new reservior i.e with the construction of a KALA BAGH Dam on the Indus.
After implementation of IBP, flow pattern of the Western rivers is highly variable. They carry high discharges---88%---in Kharif and disproportionately low in Rabi. With the help of Mangla and Tarbela seasonal carry-over capacity from Kharif to Rabi has been increased from 12 to 21%. Due to sedimentation it is down to 19%. Several potential dam sites exist on river Indus, one of them is Kala Bagh, which can make big contribution to irrigation supplies for irrigation projects.
It takes at least five years to plan a new dam and another ten to build. Thus a new dam could be ready by 2015. Six MAF water would be decreased by 2010. in these five years our agricultural economy would further deteriorate. With a shortage of 8to 9 MAF water there is no certain chance of our survival where as our extra water flows down in to the sea. The Kala Bagh Dam whose study and feasibility report is complete in all respects, is the only solution which could be constructed by year 2010. Other dams like Bhasha would be ready by 2018. Sindh is facing acute shortage of water for irrigation. Projects such as dam on Sehwan Barrage with six canals which would cost Rs. 200 million, could also be started immediately.
Sindh's apprehensions about a new storage at Kala Bagh have been examined with the help of elaborate technical studies and expert opinions of prominent national and international engineers. These studies reveal that most of these apprehensions are based either on lack of information, hearsay or prejudice.
Main apprehensions are: it would render Sindh into a desert; there would be uncontrolled grazing and cutting and the fishing business would be adversely affected.
Construction of a new reservoir would improve river supply assuring better drinking water. Sehwan Barrage will further improve the position. There is no doubt that Pakistan desperately needs to effectively harness its waters, so building a dam on Kala Bagh could surely be one of the best solutions. Power shortage is another important argument in favour of building a dam at Kala bagh.
Kala Bagh is a sequential requirement following Mangla and Tarbela, based upon Progressive developments and resultant water requirements in the country. Any obstruction in the sequence of planned development would result not only in stagnation but rapid reversal of growth in all sectors of economy.
Tarbela is a living dam with life span and planned utilization that peaked in 1990. Therefore, Kala Bagh Dam should have been in place before that time to allow uninterrupted growth. Kala Bagh was expected to sustain planned growth up to 2000 and a third stage development of a much bigger (23 MAF) storage dam was foreseen in the planning horizon of the Indus Basin development plan. The politicians of the smaller provinces and their Power-brokers have used the Kala Bagh card to cling to their seats. Kala bagh Dam is required much more by NWFP and Sindh than Punjab. A simple analysis shows that Kala Bagh-generated additional water rate alone would add about Rs 11,500 crore annually revenue and generate 3600 MW electricity. Direct agricultural gains and allied growth in national income will be manifold higher. The historic Indus Rivers System annual flows amounted to an average of 192 MAF in the Pre-Indus Basin development plan period. About 30 MAF was scarified from the three Eastern Rivers to India from Punjab under the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. In a balancing bargain, India contributed to the construction of Indus Basin replacement works. These included the 17 link canals, which were essential to keep the headwork of the country's vast irrigation network in operation. It is to be noted that the treaty was signed during the "One Unit" and "Martial Law" era of our history; therefore, there was no political brokerage and provincial consensus. It is bonus from that "One Unit" and "Martial Law" period that Punjab did not create any fuss as millions of acres of its fertile lands had gone into the link canals apart from 30 MAF of the waters of the Eastern rivers.
So any province or any political party who thinks that only one province is going to benefit due to the construction of Kala Bagh is selfish, prejudiced and is not aware of the ground realities. We have already lost 30 precious years debating, discussing and raising the cost of construction many times. The Kala Bagh Dam will greatly help NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan, other than Punjab. The concerns of the affected people must be addressed, necessary compensation provided and a time frame for rehabilitation laid down so that unnecessary harassment and misery is avoided But it must be realized that no other dam can store extra water from River Kabul and Indus for constant supply throughout the year and to avoid the dangers of devastating floods in NWFP, Northern Punjab and Sindh if climatic conditions remain the same in future.
President General Pervez Musharraf and the Federal Government headed by Mr. Shaukat Aziz has been waiting for anxiously for the submission of report by the Technical Advisory Committee on water Resources. The committee has submitted its report and has recommended for the construction of New Dams as they are the dire need in the present situation with regard to the water shortage problem.
This seems to be the only permanent solution therefore, the selfish leaders should stop creating obstacles in the construction of a Project which will usher in a agricultural revolution. We have already lost more than 30 years in political struggle to have consensus on the construction of Kala Bagh or to stop its construction. If technical issues are to be decided by the politicians, then they may as well decide all other scientific and medical issues. There must be a limit to such insensitivity on welfare issues. So it is humbly requested to the President General Parvez Musharraf that he should let all prejudices be washed away and make this engineering Project a reality as the nation is of the unanimous opinion that Kala Bagh Dam can only be constructed in President Musharraf's tenure other wise no, and never, in future.

Kalabagh Dam — Not without consensus
Khalid Khokhar

The much awaited technical report of the ANG Abbasi committee on water resources has been finally submitted to President Pervez Musharraf on 31 August, 2005. The report says that Pakistan needs dams on the Indus River to cater to the country’s growing water and power needs and recommends that at least one dam be built immediately if the country is to be saved from damage. The National Security Council had already authorized President General Pervez Musharraf to take a decision on construction of a big dam in the national interest. However, the President wants to take all the provinces into confidence on the basis of the findings of the Technical Committee on Water and Resources (TCWR) report. In order to pacify the opposing forces, the President wants to hold a meeting of the National Security Council some time this month to finalize a strategy for achieving national consensus and take a formal decision on the construction of a big dam. Side by side, President has constituted a parliamentary committee to develop the confidence among the people of smaller provinces. According to the President of Pakistan, national consensus alone can provide the space to amicably conclude this long lingering controversy.
The construction of Kalabagh Dam project would create employment opportunities, reduce poverty and bring prosperity in the country. Kalabagh Dam would store surplus water in the flood season and make it available for controlled utilization during the low flow season. This water would thus be used for sowing and final maturing of the Kharif crops and entire Rabi crops. Irrigation oriented operation of the project gives the highest overall economic return. If Kalabagh was in position today, there would have been no load-shedding in Pakistan. The energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20 million of oil per year. Kalabagh would reduce the frequency and severity of flooding along the Indus particularly between the dam site and Indus/Punjab confluence (300 miles downstream). On a conservation basis, the overall direct benefits of Kalabagh Dam would be around Rs. 25 billion per annum. Hence, experts believe that more dams is the only solution. The graph of water for irrigation and power generation in the existing dams is sharply declining. Kalabagh dam be used as ‘carry over dam’ so that no canal or barrage could be carved out of it. The water which is left after its utilization for generation of electricity, it should be provided to provinces under 1991 water accord. When flood comes, water should be stored. Pro-Dam lobby in Sindh believes that much of the unutilised Indus water flows into the Arabian Sea and goes waste. If this water is stored in a reservoir, it can be released whenever required. Hence, a dam of Kalabagh-size is the proper answer.
The Kalabagh Dam has been the bone of contention for many years amongst the NWFP, the Punjab and Sindh provinces. It is true that people hailing from all the three provinces have some valid threats which need to be resolved so as to maintain national cohesion. It is therefore absolutely essential that people in these provinces need to be apprised of the benefits of Kalabagh Dam, and their anxiety and apprehensions need to be allayed. These apprehensions coupled with stubborn attitude of the politicians of the provinces, has dragged this developmental and technical issue to a standstill. In order to protect their vested interests, some politicians are opposing the construction of Kalabagh Dam. In its last-ditch battle against these elements, the government is contacting political parties opposed to the Kalabagh Dam and highlighting recent modifications to the dam’s design to convince them to support the dam. The Awami National Party (ANP), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and nationalist parties from Sindh are against the dam’s construction.
President General Pervez Musharraf, has made considerable efforts to help achieve a consensus amongst the provinces and have aptly removed their qualms about the project. Resultantly, the provinces have no reservations against the construction of the Kalabagh Dam. “Pakistan needs the Kalabagh Dam and we’ll go for it since its design has been altered to the provinces’ entire satisfaction,” Musharraf told ANG Abbasi, chairman of the Technical Committee on Water Resources (TCWR), during a meeting at Army House in Rawalpindi. The government is expected to make an unambiguous decision on Kalabagh Dam in very near future. The federal government wants to take all the people into confidence for resolving the issue of Kalabagh Dam. Now, it is high time that all the provinces should forego their vested interests for the overall prosperity of the country and decide while keeping in view the “Pakistan comes first” consideration.

New initiatives in SAARC
Sobia Nisar

Pakistan would present new proposals and initiatives in the forthcoming South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit being held in Bangladesh in November this year to make the organization more effective and vibrant. This was stated by Pakistani Premier Shaukat Aziz, who is also the Chairman of SAARC. Pakistan is committed to extend full cooperation and assistance to the members of the SAARC for achieving the goals of development. Although the people living in the SAARC region had the potential but there is a need to utilize it in a better and organized way. The Pakistan Action Plan to implement SAARC Social Charter was a significant milestone in the short history of SAARC. The Charter would accelerate economic growth, social progress, and cultural development besides reducing poverty in the region as well as promoting welfare of the people through improvement in quality of life. It would also help to provide opportunities to all individuals to realize their full potential and underscore the commitment of Pakistan to work together with member states for the welfare and well-being of one-fifth of humanity living in South Asia. Pakistan’s commitment and devotion to implement SAARC Social Charter is in right direction and would provide strength to other regional partners as well. Appreciating the goals set in the Charter, PM Shaukat Aziz said that Pakistan would make all out efforts to meet and exceed these goals with a view to improve the living standard of the people in the country. The Pakistan Plan of Action articulates response to the SAARC Social Charter and it would focus on developing and maintaining social infrastructure, environment, socio-economic development etc.
The SAARC should be made more active to ensure progress and prosperity in the region for the benefit of one-fifth of the world population. The SAARC Secretariat should be broadened so that it could play an important role in promoting harmony, cooperation and assistance among the member states. The SAARC Secretariat needs more manpower to carry out programmes in an effective manner. Similarly, the SAARC Charter also needs to be modified. The SAARC Charter should also include the security-related issues hampering the peace and prosperity of the South Asian region for a long time.
Nations in South Asia share cultural, historic and social traditions and it is natural for them to join hands to address the economic and social needs of their peoples through the interaction of ideas, values and philosophies. However, there is an ample need to address the security-related bilateral issues in the SAARC Charter. At the moment, there is no such provision whereas, it should have been so as the SAARC provides the best forum whereby all the South Asian states gather at one point for the collective development of the region. The political, territorial disputes and water issues engulfing the South Asian countries should be discussed at priority.
The absence of discussion regarding security related bilateral issues in the SAARC Charter is mainly due to the ‘big brother’ India who does not want to discuss any other issue rather than the economic one in the SAARC summit. India aspires to become a regional economic giant. For this reason, India aims to derive maximum economic benefits from SAARC members. Having territorial, water and political disputes with all of its neighbouring states, India is not ready to utilize the forum for resolution of these conflicts.
It is high time India should realize the trouble it is creating by not solving bilateral disputes with its neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh, Srilanka, Bhutan, and Pakistan. Instead of implementing hegemony in the region and avoiding the settlement of border/ river disputes with its neighbours, Indian government should be wise and bold enough to come on table talks with all of her neighbouring states. India should not hesitate to negotiate outstanding disputes with SAARC members in the on-coming summit in November. Indian government should broaden up its perspective and adopt a flexible approach in this regard. In fact, the SAARC charter should include the discussion of bilateral issues between its member countries as it can provide an opportunity and suitable forum for resolution of bilateral disputes and achieving peace in South Asia.