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In pursuit of legitimacy |
AFGHANISTAN'S Independent Election Commission formally announced on Tuesday that President Karzai had received 49.7 percent of the votes, which is below the over-50 percent required to avoid a runoff. Karzai, who had so far berated those challenging the results, has finally accepted the findings.
The announcement comes a day after an inquiry by a UN-backed watchdog confirmed staggering levels of fraud in the August 20 vote, declaring more than a million votes suspect, thus bringing the tally down from 55 percent to 49.5 percent. A quarter of the total votes cast have been declared doubtful. For two months Karzai had obstinately defended his dubious victory.
It took a lot of international pressure to persuade him to accept the reality. Prime Minister Gordon Brown spoke with him several times, finally telling him plainly that he had to accept or would no longer be a partner of the West.
Senator John Kerry and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton also added their weight along with US National Security Advisor James Jones who spoke to Karzai's Defence Minister, General Abdul Rahim Wardak telling him that the decision regarding more troops for Afghanistan was being delayed, pending Karzai's agreement for runoff polls.
Karzai was widely accused of stealing the presidential election. The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), headed by a Canadian and including three members appointed by the UN, was swamped with allegations of vote-rigging at 2,804 polling stations and 726 of these were serious enough to sway the outcome. The ECC finally concluded that there was "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" and ordered an audit of districts where the turnout was 100% (or more) or one candidate won more than 95% of votes.
There were also complaints of low voter turnout, ballot-stuffing, intimidation and other types of election malpractices. Karzai's main challenger Abdullah Abdullah accused the administration of "massive state-sponsored fraud". A UN official predicted that anywhere between 10% and 20%, or as many as one in five, of all the ballots were illegal, and even proposed that negotiations would have to be held to "massage down" Karzai's victory margin.
In a multi-ethnic country marred by distrust among linguistic groups, electoral irregularities committed by a candidate, who also happens to be the sitting President, can have highly negative implications for national unity. In Afghanistan these can also help the Taliban, who can claim that despite rampant corruption in Kabul, what keeps Karzai in office is not public support but total subservience to the US.
Similarly, a perception that the Karzai government was the outcome of an election fraud would deprive it of support in the Western countries, making it difficult for governments to send soldiers to die for its sake. Hopes by the US that the election would yield a partner who has the support of the people and can provide decent governance that is essential to fighting an insurgency, would dash to the ground. Under the circumstances, there is a need to hold a runoff election.
While it is not possible to accept the election results, it would be premature to predict what the runoff is likely to throw up. European Union's top diplomat Javier Solana has called for a "credible and legitimate" runoff. UN Sec. General Ban Ki-moon has cautioned that holding the runoff election presented huge challenges. There are a number of questions that remain unanswered.
Fears are being expressed that there would be lesser voter turnout as many of Karzai's supporters, who are irked by his willingness to accept the runoff, might not turn up. Cold weather, marked by early snowfall in parts of Afghanistan, might also contribute to voter downturn. Again, with Karzai determined to win, will he not again resort to election malpractices?
An unrepentant Karzai is still not willing to admit that there was election fraud. Commenting on the disqualified votes, he has remarked that the voters are not to blame. According to him, what needs to be investigated is why their votes were "disrespected". As there is no let up to the Taliban's activity, will it be possible to provide the much-needed security at the polling stations?
There are questions of another type also. Can Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah strike a deal, with the former conceding to Karzai in return for a major role in a coalition government? Abdullah has hinted he would be open to negotiate, but Karzai, at a news conference on Tuesday, seemed to rule it out. But anything is possible for politicians known for their addiction to realpolitik.
Will an alliance of the sort create a stable Afghan government with broader popular support? Will the joint administration be less corrupt? Or will the arrangement make the running of Afghanistan more chaotic, given the enmities between the two? There are many who think a decision to join hands would carry enormous political risks for both of them, as well as for the United States and its allies.
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ASEAN summit |
THE three-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Thailand, which concludes today, is likely to leave mixed feelings among some of the 10 member nations. There has been agreement to establish a human rights watchdog, but the summit stopped short of criticizing the military junta in Myanmar with its abysmal human rights record. It did, however, urge the Myanmar regime to hold free and fair elections next year.
The ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. There has, however, been further accord on the long-debated vision of establishing an ASEAN common market, an Asian free trade area modeled in part on the original European Economic Community. Thus far the implementation of the limited trade and commerce agreements within ASEAN has been patchy. Malaysia has, for instance, implemented an open skies agreement but some other countries, anxious to protect their national carriers have been dragging their heels.
But big trees from little acorns grow. If ASEAN countries really do recognize the advantages of a properly functioning free trade area and are prepared to avoid protectionism toward inefficient sectors of their own economies, then the economic bloc could assume a powerful position in international trade. The harsh truth is that the Asian Tigers have not fulfilled their early promise. Though the transformation in some more forward-thinking states, such as Malaysia and Singapore, has been remarkable, other members, such as the Philippines have wallowed economically. If an ASEAN free trade area can be made to function strongly, then laggards like the Philippines and Laos and Cambodia can expect to benefit economically in the same way that Portugal, Spain and Greece have boomed since joining the EU.
ASEAN countries have to look to compete on as equal terms as possible with the rising economic dominance of India and China. A standardization of commercial regulation and the bringing of legal codes into line is a prerequisite for a strong internal market. This financial system needs to work efficiently across ASEAN borders so that capital is available to flow to the most productive opportunities. Concessionary funding can additionally be extended to struggling or emerging sectors in any of the 10 member countries. A strong economic bloc will be able to cut far more beneficial bilateral deals with India, China and Japan, to say nothing of the United States and the EU.
What is clearly not on the cards, and wisely so, is any thought whatsoever of political union. No such vision exists in part because ASEAN is not defined by the same notional borders as continental Europe. The essence is for these countries to pool their resources and talents and work coherently toward clearly achievable aim of close economic cooperation, which in time will lead to some form of economic union. There are, however, mountains to climb before that. What ASEAN leaders have to do now is set about building a level playing field so they have successes to applaud when they meet next year.
—Arab News
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